Thailand: Financial System Stability Assessment; imf country Report No. 19/308; September 10, 2019

41 
Table 6. Thailand: Macroeconomic Scenario Projections (2018–2021) 
2018 2019 2020 2021
2019 2020 2021
2019 2020
2021
Real GDP growth 
4.6
3.9
3.7
3.5
-5.6
-2.4
4.9
-9.5
-6.1
1.4
Real private consumption (growth)
3.7
4.6
5.0
5.5
-2.0
-1.3
3.5
-6.6
-6.3
-2.0
Real private investment (growth)
5.7
6.5
8.0
8.5 -18.0
-8.0
8.0 -24.5 -16.0
-0.5
Real government absorption (growth)
7.4
7.4
5.6
3.8
8.5
6.5
4.5
1.1
0.9
0.7
Real exports (growth)
5.9
4.6
3.8
3.9 -18.0
-9.0
9.0 -22.6 -12.8
5.1
Real imports (growth)
6.1
7.3
6.6
6.1 -16.5
-7.0
9.0 -23.8 -13.6
2.9
Unemployment rate (percent)
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
3.0
3.5
2.8
1.9
2.3
1.6
Headline CPI Inflation (percent)
0.9
0.9
1.1
1.4
-0.5
-0.2
0.9
-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
Core CPI Inflation (percent)
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
0.1
0.3
0.7
-1.2
-1.1
-0.9
One-year nominal corporate interest rate (percent
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.4
4.3
4.0
3.5
1.4
0.9
0.1
Ten-year nominal corporate interest rate (percent)
3.7
4.0
4.1
4.2
10.1
9.9
8.4
6.1
5.8
4.2
One-year sovereign yield (percent)
1.9
2.2
2.5
2.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
-1.9
-2.3
-2.5
Ten-year sovereign yield (percent)
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
2.8
2.1
1.8
-0.3
-1.2
-1.7
Nominal USD exchange rate (growth) neg=apprec
2.2
-1.5
-1.0
-0.6
12.0
5.0
-6.1
13.5
6.0
-5.5
Asset Prices ( SET index, growth)
-10.8
7.6
9.3
5.3 -55.0
20.0
10.0 -62.6
10.7
4.7
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff estimates.
Baseline
Adverse Scenario
Deviations from the Baseline

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THAILAND
42 
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Table 7. Thailand: Investment Fund Liquidity Stress Tests—Asset Sales 
(in billions of Baht) 
Sources: The BoT, SEC of Thailand, and IMF staff calculations. 
Daily FI
MMF
Total
Cash Liquidity 
354
24
378
Short-term bonds
456
125
581
Medium-term bonds
25
25
Long-term bonds
45
45
Total NAV
880
149
1029
Total
Total
Cash Liquidity 
43
255
Short-term bonds
569
380
Medium-term bonds
24
16
Long-term bonds
44
29
Total
679
679
Daily FI
MMF
Total
Daily FI
MMF
Total
Cash Liquidity 
242 12 
254 302 21 324 
Short-term bonds
433 10 
443 389 103 492 
Medium-term bonds
24
24 19 
Long-term bonds
41
41 30 
Total
740 22 
763 740 124 865 
Cash Liquidity 
84 -
84
245
18.5
264
Short-term bonds
446 111 
558
307
92.9
400
Medium-term bonds 24 
24
16
Long-term bonds
44 
44
30
Total
598 111 710 
598
111
663
Waterfall Sales
Prorata Sales
All Funds (Daily FI +MMF)
All Funds (Daily FI +MMF)
43
255
679
679
569
380
24
16
44
29
Fu
nd
h
om
og
en
ity
Fu
nd
h
et
er
og
en
eit
y
Fu
nd
ty
pe

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THAILAND
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
43 
Appendix I. Implementation of 2008 FSAP Recommendations 
The IMF Board considered the previous FSAP for Thailand in 2008. Substantial upgrades to the 
regulatory and supervisory frameworks have been made over the last decade. The BoT’s legal power to 
issue regulations and undertake corrective actions was strengthened; insurance supervision was 
updated to a risk-based framework; NPLs were reduced and started to be monitored more closely; and 
the deposit protection transitioned from a blanket guarantee to a limited-deposit insurance system. 
Recommendations 
Prioritization 
Status 
Supervisory regime 
Passage of pending legal reforms to address weaknesses in the financial supervisory 
framework, including establishing legal independence of the heads of the supervisory 
agencies and provisions for objective and transparent standards for dismissal. 
I 
I 
Strengthen the supervisory framework for insurance by establishing an independent 
supervisory board and moving to risk-based supervision and capital regimes. 
I 
I 
Improve coordination among the supervisory agencies through regular consultations and 
greater sharing of draft policies and regulations at the staff level. Improve process of 
consultations with market participants. 
M 
I