Thailand: Financial System Stability Assessment; imf country Report No. 19/308; September 10, 2019
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INT ER NA TIO NA L MO N ET AR Y F UN D Banking Sector: Contagion Risk Domain Assumptions Top-Down by Authorities Top-down by FSAP Team 1. Institutional Perimeter Institutions included • All commercial banks (for analyses based on balance-sheet data) or listed banks, listed insurance companies, listed finance, and securities companies (for analyses based on market data). • Banks. • Insurance companies. Market share • 36 commercial banks and 27 sectors listed in SET. • 91 percent of total banking assets. • 65 percent of banking and insurance assets. Data and baseline date • June 2018. • Supervisory and market data. • June 2018. • Supervisory and market data. 2. Channels of Risk Propagation Methodology • For its systemic risk analysis, the BoT relies on five models and indicators: (i) a bank network analysis model (Espinosa- Vega and Solé, 2010); (ii) an interbank market network model (based on Bonacich’s Eigenvector Centrality measure); (iii) payment system network model (also based on Bonacich’s Eigenvector Centrality measure); (iv) CoVaR measures; and (v) Variance Decomposition results from Diebold- Yilmaz methodology. • A new methodology is going to be introduced (based on Civilize et al., 2018, forthcoming) to profile and stress test the financial system via the Disaggregated Balance Sheet Network, which is a consistent system of balance sheets with disaggregated balance sheet profiles of non-financial corporations, banks, and mutual funds. • Interbank and cross border network model by Espinosa- Vega and Solé (2010). • Diebold-Yilmaz variance decomposition connectedness methodology. • A Comprehensive Mutli-sector Tool for Analysis of Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN approach). |
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