Guide to Analysing Companies

ESSENTIAL FINANCE
01 Essential Finance 10/11/06 2:21 PM Page 2

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whom they are passing the risk capable of managing it, particu-
larly if markets remain volatile? In short, could the shift from a
system reliant on banks to one based largely on markets contain
dangers of its own?
Insurers at risk
One worry is that insurance companies – not always the most
sophisticated of investors – have taken on part of the risk that
banks and other intermediaries in the financial markets are
shedding. Swiss Re and Munich Re, two of the world’s biggest
insurers, between them account for a large proportion of credit
derivatives outstanding. Credit derivatives are securities that
allow banks to pass on to other investors the risk that some of
their borrowers will default. Insurance companies have also
been big buyers of asset-backed securities, financial instruments
backed by pools of loans and other forms of debt. If insurance
companies were unable to meet their liabilities and went bust,
there is a danger that the problems would rebound on the
banks.
Another worry is that, with fewer and larger international
banks, the pressure to succeed on even the best-managed banks
may reach a point where they make mistakes on a colossal
scale. Consolidation also brings dangers of its own. Take the
foreign-exchange markets. In 1995, 20 banks in the United States
accounted for 75% of foreign exchange traded; six years later,
the number was down to 13. Liquidity, argue some, is a function
not just of the size of the market but also of the diversity of
opinion of those trading within it. Moreover, financial institu-
tions increasingly use the same models for assessing and man-
aging risk. So when one decides to move, generally they all
move. As the deals become bigger and the stakes higher, ob-
servers worry that a sudden loss of liquidity or a shock on the
scale of the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001 could cause
a black hole to open up. If it does, the risk is that even sound
companies could be sucked into it.
There have already been a few close calls. From 1997,
commercial banks have been permitted to use so-called value-
at-risk (var) models to calculate the amount of capital they are