International Economics
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Dominick-Salvatore-International-Economics
Derivatives Markets (Washington, D.C.: IMF, 2000).
■ M. Obstfeld and A. M. Taylor, “Globalization and Capital Markets,” NBER Working Paper No. 8846 , March 2002. ■ Bank of International Settlements, Triennial Central Bank Sur- vey (Basel, Switzerland: BIS, March 2012). ■ International Monetary Fund, International Capital Markets (Washington, D.C.: IMF, 2012). ■ Bank for International Settlements, Annual Report (Basel, Switzerland: BIS, 2012). I N T E R N e t The basics of the foreign exchange market in the United States can be found at: http://www.newyorkfed.org/education/addpub/usfxm/ chap2.pdf Data on exchange rates by country and region, cross-rates, and the ability to calculate the exchange rate between any two currencies can be found at: http://www.x-rates.com/ The monthly trade-weighted exchange rate of the dollar, as well as data on U.S. interest rates, can be obtained by clicking, respectively, on “Exchange Rates” and “Inter- est Rates” (for covered interest arbitrage) on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis website at: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 For the internationalization of the renminbi, see: http://www.bis.org/repofficepubl/arpresearch200903 .05.pdf http://www.citibank.com/transactionservices/home/ corporations/docs/rmb.pdf http://www.jpmorgan.com/tss/General/China_ Internationalization_of_RMB/1288220029583 The carry trade is examined at: http://www.babypips.com/school/what-is-carry-trade .html http://www.fxwords.com/c/carry-trade.htm http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/why-is-the- carry-trade-so-dangerous Salvatore c15.tex V2 - 10/18/2012 12:45 A.M. Page 463 Exchange Rate Determination chapter L E A R N I N G G OA L S : After reading this chapter, you should be able to: • Understand the purchasing-power parity theory and why it does not work in the short run • Understand how the monetary and the portfolio balance models of the exchange rate work • Understand the causes of exchange rate overshooting • Understand why exchange rates are so difficult to forecast 15.1 Introduction In this chapter, we examine modern exchange rate theories. These theories are based on the monetary approach and the asset market or portfolio balance approach to the balance of payments that have been developed since the late 1960s. These theories view the exchange rate, for the most part, as a purely financial phenomenon. They also seek to explain the great short-run volatility of exchange rates and their tendency to overshoot their long-run equilibrium level, which have often been observed during the past four decades. These modern exchange rate theories may be distinguished from traditional exchange rate theories (discussed in Chapters 16 and 17), which are based on trade flows and help explain exchange rate movements only in the long run or over the years. Since the advent of floating rates in 1973, international financial flows have increased tremendously and are now far larger than trade flows. Therefore, it is only natural that interest shifted toward monetary theories of exchange rate deter- mination. Traditional exchange rate theories are still important, however, especially in explaining exchange rates in the long run. We begin in Section 15.2 by presenting the purchasing-power parity theory, which provides the long-run framework for the monetary and asset market or portfolio balance approaches to exchange rate determination. Section 15.3 then 463 Salvatore c15.tex V2 - 10/18/2012 12:45 A.M. Page 464 464 Exchange Rate Determination examines the monetary approach to the balance of payments and exchange rate determina- tion. Section 15.4 presents the portfolio balance approach to exchange rate determination. Section 15.5 examines exchange rate dynamics and seeks to explain the tendency of short-run exchange rates to overshoot their long-run equilibrium level. Finally, Section 15.6 presents empirical evidence on the monetary approach and the portfolio balance approach, and on exchange rate forecasting. The appendix to the chapter discusses a formal model of the monetary approach and portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination. 15.2 Purchasing-Power Parity Theory In this section, we examine the purchasing-power parity (PPP) theory and evaluate its usefulness in explaining exchange rates. The purchasing-power parity (PPP) theory was elaborated and brought back into use by the Swedish economist Gustav Cassel in order to estimate the equilibrium exchange rates at which nations could return to the gold standard after the disruption of international trade and the large changes in relative commodity prices in the various nations caused by World War I. There is an absolute and a relative version of the PPP theory. These will be examined in turn. 15.2 A Absolute Purchasing-Power Parity Theory The absolute purchasing-power parity theory postulates that the equilibrium exchange rate between two currencies is equal to the ratio of the price levels in the two nations. Specifi- cally: Download 7.1 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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