Is It a way Out of Crises for White Meat Producers to Focus On Export Strategies During Crisis Times?
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Is-It-A-Way-Out-of-Crises-for-White-Meat-Producers 2011 Procedia---Social-an
3. Data and Methodology
Data: The data for this study includes the export and production quantity data of the chicken meat industry in Turkey from 1981 to 2010. The data was gathered from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Annual production and export data is illustrated in Figures 1 and 2. These figures exhibit the typical exponential increase with time. The important point that Figure 2 illustrates is the existence of breakpoints for the years of 1994, 2001 and 2005. It is known that in 1994 and 2001, Turkey was faced with important economic crises, which affected almost all production sectors. In addition, the 2005 crisis was a sector specific crisis affecting the chicken meat sector, because of the Avian Influenza. In this paper, we attempt to fit an appropriate curve to the data by using a polynomial structure of a time trend and dummy variables that represent the crises. Figure 1: Chicken Meat Production (Ton/Year) Cüneyt Akar et al. / Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences 24 (2011) 300–307 303 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 CHICKEN MEAT PRODUCTION Figure 2: Chicken Meat Export Data for Turkey(Ton/year) 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 CHICKEN MEAT PRODUCTION Curve Fitting: Curve fitting is the process of constructing a curve that fits the data best. There are different ways of curve fitting, classified as parametric and non- parametric techniques. In this study, we use the parametric curve fitting techniques, namely polynomial regressions (polynomial curve fitting). The curve fitting equation can be written as follows: 0 1 94 2 2001 3 2005 1 ( ) T i t i t i EXP TREND D D D β β δ δ δ ε = = + + + + + ¦ (1) 304 Cüneyt Akar et al. / Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences 24 (2011) 300–307 Where: t EXP is the chicken meat export quantity measured in tons and TREND is a linear time trend which takes on the values of 0, 1, 2, T. 94 2001 2005 , , D D D are dummy variables which represent the 1994, 2001 and 2005 crises, respectively. The definition of dummy variables is presented in Table 1. t ε is the error term, which follows a normal distribution with a zero mean and constant variance. In Equation (1), the model is linear with respect to the coefficients. In order to estimate Equation (1), we use the least squares method; the order of i is selected as the trial and error method for the best fit. Cüneyt Akar et al. / Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences 24 (2011) 300–307 305 Table 1: Definition of Dummy Variables Dummy Variable Definiton 94 D 1 for the year 1994 0 otherwise 2001 D 1 for the year 2001 0 otherwise 2005 D 1 for the year 2005 0 otherwise Download 142.96 Kb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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