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TOEFL audioscript
Number 2, Page 275 [ mp3 115] Now listen to a lecture on this topic in a political science class. (Professor) There are many ways that sample bias can affect the results of an election poll. The use of telephone surveys has always presented pollsters with several kinds of bias that have changed along with changes in technology. When telephones were less common among rural voters and poor voters, surveys conducted by telephone tended to exclude these people. This created an exclusion bias because people who did not have phones were underrepresented in, or even excluded from the polls. As technology has made it possible for more people to replace their land lines at home with mobile cell phones, another bias has been introduced. Surveys conducted by land line over-represent older and more rural people. That’s because they are more likely to rely on a land line than to have gotten rid of it in favor of a cell phone as younger, more urban individuals have done. Another type of bias that is always present in telephone surveys is the self-selection bias. That is, since you are not obligated to answer survey questions over the phone, those who don’t care about or know little about the issues are more likely not to agree to answer the survey questions. On the other hand, those who are willing to answer survey questions are people who may already have strong opinions and feel knowledgeable about the issues or political candidates. In all of these cases, the samples do not accurately represent the total population, and so the results might reflect more heavily the views of urban people, the elderly, or people who are actively involved in politics. To accurately represent the entire population, statistical methods must be applied to correct for these biases. |
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