Long Term Secrets To Short-Term Trading

"But you said ... Page 63 says to ... This line crossed that one ... lt*s trading day of the month 11, 
shouldn't 1 . . . " Those are typical comments I hear every day from readers of my books and illustrate an 
important part about being a winning trader. 
It Is just Like Life 
Not only is this business not black and White, neither is life. We all know that (I think), yet as 
traders we want absolutes so badly that we absolutely forget to think. For example, math is an absolute, but 
when applied to the imperfect world of stocks and commodities, it reverts to being a tool that simply gives 
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more clarity and definition to the imperfections. Please, never forget that above all else, speculation is a 
thinking business. If you are not good at thinking, or at least at getting correct answers, I suggest that you 
look for the off ramps. 
This problem begins with a wish or hope that there is some be-all automatic/systematic approach to 
trading. The two greatest bits of bad information so-called advisers and authors such as myself foist on the 
great unwashed masses is either extreme and continual bearishness, or the belief that somewhere, someplace, 
there exists an absolutely perfect system-that there is precise cadence, order, and structure to the markets. 
These are the two great myths of speculation. 
Yes, there are times to be bearish on stock and the economy, but there's an entire camp of newsletter 
writers making a pretty good living by deliberately pandering to fears of gloom and doom, of another 1929 
... starting tomorrow. I know these folks; I have appeared at the same symposiums with them, and I have 
seen them consistently bearish, in one case, since 1962, One of these "Negative Nellies," in a private 
conversation told me there was a huge market of investors who feared the future, actually believed things 
were falling apart quickly and it was his business to flame these fires. He added, "It's easier to sell 
subscriptions to these people, they are an easy-to-target market, and if I'm wrong on stock picks, it doesn't 
matter, performance does not count, it's reaffirming their belief that they want to hear." 
This crowd is full of pontificators, good people who have overanalyzed everything and concluded the 
future for the United States, and the world, is behind us. And yet, even the most cursory study of history will 
establish one dominant fact; our condition and lot in life is constantly getting better. Yes, there are some 
downs, but they are far outweighed by the ups. 
There is another side to this coin, the "cosmic trader" who is convinced there is an explanation for 
every market high and low, that every up-and-down tick in price is fully explainable, and usually for a pretty 
stiff fee payable up front to them! When I was young and ignorant of the ways of the market, and my fellow 
traders, I fell for this pitch. After all, these people had a track record of success and could explain away all 
the market moves that had taken place in the past. 
Usually the foundation for this belief is based on the legend of W.D. Gann, I have already written about 
the "legend" and that it was just a good dose of showmanship mixed with some winning trades, a bit a 
braggadocio and an aggressive public relations man. Again this is not my opinion, but facts as related to me 
by F.B. Thatcher, the advance man for old W.D. 
The more time I spent in outer space with this crowd, the more losing trades I saw. Although their 
explanations of the past were brilliant, their forecasts of the future were right about one time out of twenty 
and, naturally. that's the one they talk (brag) about in all their advertisements. There is no 

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reality here; the fact they were dead wrong in the past did not prevent or harness them from again 
attempting to predict the future! Accuracy, making money, has nothing to do with their life-it is all about