Long Term Secrets To Short-Term Trading

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focus on August 14th-1 7th for the high to appear." Beginning on the 17th a bear market attack was 
begun on stock prices, as we now know. 
If we were like other services, we'd probably go out and buy a big ad in Investor's Daily you how 
great we are (were). 
But, folks, 27 years of trading has proven to me that forecasting prices, politics and our lives is 
difficult if not damned near impossible. Please, let me explain ... because as soon as you get this point you 
will become a successful trader. 
Gracious, What a Messy Drawer 
I've used the top right-hand drawer of my desk now for the last 18 months as a vault to store predictions 
from a wide array of market letters (stocks and/or commodities) as well as other prognostications of what was 
to happen. 
Last night I delved into this pile to rummage around with yesterday's news and possibilities. What I found 
was thrilling, enlightening, and most rewarding. 
This culmination of hard work and multifaceted predictions of the future illustrates quite clearly that-it 
can't be done. Let's see, how do I prove it to you? Should I show you the chart from a leading computer type 
letter that used a Neuro-Net to scribe out that bonds would stage a big bull rally-in February? Nope, maybe I 
should quote from an Investors Daily interview with Guru Elaine Garzarelli, wherein she expected (as of 
March this year)that "Stocks should provide 20 percent returns over the next six to twelve months." 
Garzarelli follows fundamental indicators. Others follow astrology. Frankly, compared to the fancy 
fundamentalists, they have not done a bad job. What I mean is they are no worse than the better educated 
Wharton or Harvard forecasts. 
I could belabon the point by showing you one of this country's major forecasters whose graphic forecast 
showed a continued bear market all the way down to a low in December ... in Bonds. But, so what? Would 
that better prove the point I trust I have already made? If no ... do what I did ... collect all the forecasts that 
cross your desk. Store them up for a year and let the point prove itself. 

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When I was younger I had this silly notion that my personal future could be divined by some psychic 
means. Hence, I tried them all, palmistry, astrology, Tarot. The method did not matter, the outcome did. I 
learned a lot which all boils down to this, "There are better ways to spend your money." 
After all, I began as an art major in college, switched to journalism and here I end up using math to trade 
the markets. None of those seers of what's to come, came remotely close to forecasting my future. 
Politics Too 
Heard "Slick Willie" say the recent DJIA spill-off was Wall Street's reaction to the Bush acceptance 
speech. That's almost as bad a statement as to say our call for the August high predicted a bad Bush speech 
which would lead to the tumble. Speaking of politics, where are the spin doctors today who so boldly 
predicted that it would be folly to run against Bush as he was unbeatable? 
OK-Let's Wrap This Up 
It all gets down to this; in 27 years of trading I have yet to see anyone who can consistently forecast the 
future of anything. Every few years we have a Granville, Precheter, Inger or Williarns that holds a hot hand, 
but not for long. 
That's right-27 years-and not one of us have yet been right for long with prediction. Moral of the Month;