Major trends: opportunities and challenges
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Major trends: opportunities and challenges Expert Group Meeting on “Creating full and productive employment and decent work for all as a way of overcoming inequalities to accelerate the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the full implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” José Moisés Martín Carretero Employment and technological change • History of economic growth is the History of technological change. • XIXst-XXst Centuries: increased productivity lead to higher levels of employment and better working conditions. Is this time different? • Jeremy Rifkin: The end of work (1995): Technological change will destroy Jobs. • Exponential change and creative destruction • Potential for employment substitution by robotics. Martecs Law: Transformation pace > adaptation capacities Main expected effects: • Job losses due to automation. • Rising Inequality among workers. • New labour rights challenges Employment substitution: Some estimations • Frey & Osborne (2013): 47% of labour force affected by automatization • OECD (2019): 14% of Jobs in OECD countries is highly automatable. • OECD (2021): AI will affect mainly to white collar jobs. • World Economic Forum (2020): By 2025: • 85 Million displaced by technology. • 97 Million new Jobs. • 40% of labour force will require new skills. What is the evidence? • Collected evidence is, at this moment, mixed: • Davide Dottori (2020). Italy: no evidence of significant changes. • Adachi et al. (2021). Japan positive effects in wages and employment. • Acemoglu et Restrepo (2020). US. Negative effects. • Klenert et al. (2022). European Union. Positive effects. • Bordot (2022): Negative effects in employment level. Jobs polarisation and inequality • Economic “consensus”: ICT driven economies will increase inequality. • High skilled workers will be more productive →higher wages. • Low skilled workers will be redundant → lower wages. • Middle skilled workers will be substituted → employment losses. • Concentration of productivity in leading firms will lead to increasing inequality (winners take all effect) • The end of middle class? Inequality and employment polarization • While the consensus among economists shows that digital economy is generating jobs polarization, evidence is mixed (again): • Autor (2010): Growth of low skilled jobs in the US. • Acemoglu (2021) Digital economy is much more unequal than expected. • Böhm (2020): evidence shows a growing divide between high wages and low wages. • Oesch (2021): No evidence of jobs polarization in Western European Economies. • Rim Yi et Shim (2020): Job polarization in US is not related to ICT intensitivy. • Manning (2019): Polarization is nothing new but an ongoing process. Organizational challenges and labour rights New organizational models which challenge the tradicional divide between employee and employer Teleworking Agile Organizations Holocracy Open Source Organizations Spotify model Platform organization Effects in labour regulation: Digital labour rights Non standard Jobs Mental health issues Non-technological intangible capital: managerial skills, firm culture, soft competences… Non Standard Jobs • Temporary employment. • Part time and on-call work • Multy-Party employment relationship • Dependent self-employment. Source: ILO How many non standard jobs are there in the world? • ILO (2018) More than 1.7 billion workers in vulnerable employments (overlapping between “non standard jobs” and informal economy) • Kassi (2021): 160 million workers in digital platforms. • ILO (2021): Temporary jobs: • 6.8% of European firms intensively rely in temporary jobs. • 7.2% of Developing country firms intensively rely in temporary jobs. Some remarks to continue the debate • The main current challenge is not substitution but transformation of employment. • Differences between firm and economy levels: • Firm level: digital adaptation leads to more and better employment. • Economy-wide level: automation effects are mixed. • Institutions matter. • Labour market institutions. • Competition regulations. • Policies matter. • Education and training policies. • Social protection policies. • Economic and firm structure matters. • Industrial vs service economies. • Managerial and intangible capitals are crutial Download 0.76 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: 
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