Microsoft Word io elliott Wave Theory doc
Lesson 25: FIBONACCI TIME SEQUENCES
Download 1.72 Mb. Pdf ko'rish
|
A J Frost, Robert Prechter Elliott
Lesson 25: FIBONACCI TIME SEQUENCES
84 There is no sure way of using the time factor by itself in forecasting. Frequently, however, time relationships based on the Fibonacci sequence go beyond an exercise in numerology and seem to fit wave spans with remarkable accuracy, giving the analyst added perspective. Elliott said that the time factor often "conforms to the pattern" and therein lies its significance. In wave analysis, Fibonacci time periods serve to indicate possible times for a turn, especially if they coincide with price targets and wave counts. In Nature's Law, Elliott gave the following examples of Fibonacci time spans between important turning points in the market: 1921 to 1929 8 years July 1921 to November 1928 89 months September 1929 to July 1932 34 months July 1932 to July 1933 13 months July 1933 to July 1934 13 months July 1934 to March 1937 34 months July 1932 to March 1937 5 years (55 months) March 1937 to March 1938 13 months 1929 to 1942 13 years In Dow Theory Letters on November 21, 1973, Richard Russell gave some additional examples of Fibonacci time periods: 1907 panic low to 1962 panic low 55 years 1949 major bottom to 1962 panic low 13 years 1921 recession low to 1942 recession low 21 years January 1960 top to October 1962 bottom 34 months Taken in toto, these distances appear to be a bit more than coincidence. Walter E. White, in his 1968 monograph on the Elliott Wave Principle, concluded that "the next important low point may be in 1970." As substantiation, he pointed out the following Fibonacci sequence: 1949 + 21 = 1970; 1957 + 13 = 1970; 1962 + 8 = 1970; 1965 + 5 = 1970. May 1970, of course, marked the low point of the most vicious slide in thirty years. The progression of years from the 1928 (possible orthodox) and 1929 (nominal) high of the last Supercycle produces a remarkable Fibonacci sequence as well: 1929 + 3 = 1932 bear market bottom 1929 + 5 = 1934 correction bottom 1929 + 8 = 1937 bull market top 1929 + 13 = 1942 bear market bottom 1928 + 21 = 1949 bear market bottom 85 1928 + 34 = 1962 crash bottom 1928 + 55 = 1982 major bottom (1 year off) A similar series has begun at the 1965 (possible orthodox) and 1966 (nominal) highs of the third Cycle wave of the current Supercycle: 1965 + 1 = 1966 nominal high 1965 + 2 = 1967 reaction low 1965 + 3 = 1968 blowoff peak for secondaries 1965 + 5 = 1970 crash low 1966 + 8 = 1974 bear market bottom 1966 + 13 = 1979 low for 9.2 and 4.5 year cycles 1966 + 21 = 1987 high, low and crash In applying Fibonacci time periods to the pattern of the market, Bolton noted that time "permutations tend to become infinite" and that time "periods will produce tops to bottoms, tops to tops, bottoms to bottoms or bottoms to tops." Despite this reservation, he successfully indicated within the same book, which was published in 1960, that 1962 or 1963, based on the Fibonacci sequence, could produce an important turning point. 1962, as we now know, saw a vicious bear market and the low of Primary wave [4], which preceded a virtually uninterrupted advance lasting nearly four years. In addition to this type of time sequence analysis, the time relationship between bull and bear as discovered by Robert Rhea has proved useful in forecasting. Robert Prechter, in writing for Merrill Lynch, noted in March 1978 that "April 17 marks the day on which the A-B-C decline would consume 1931 market hours, or .618 times the 3124 market hours in the advance of waves (1), (2) and (3)." Friday, April 14 marked the upside breakout from the lethargic inverse head and shoulders pattern on the Dow, and Monday, April 17 was the explosive day of record volume, 63.5 million shares. While this time projection did not coincide with the low, it did mark the exact day when the psychological pressure of the preceding bear was lifted from the market. Download 1.72 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
Ma'lumotlar bazasi mualliflik huquqi bilan himoyalangan ©fayllar.org 2024
ma'muriyatiga murojaat qiling
ma'muriyatiga murojaat qiling