Republic of uzbekistan andijan machine-building institute fundamentals of business management

4. Financial forecasting. 
Situational analysis and forecastingThe method is based on a model designed to study a fixed 
or functional deterministic relationship. Using this model and putting various factor forecast 
indicators into it, for example, income from sales, asset turnover, one of the main indicators of 
efficiency through indicators such as the level of financial dependence - the forecast indicator of 
private capital profitability rsatchiks can be determined. The forecast of the possible results of the 
planned project is carried out by the following formula: 
n 
 = 
(1) 
K=1 
(1) the main criteria are determined by the formula (for example, the maximization of expected profit) 
n 
E(R)= Rk*Pk--max; 
(2) 
K=1 
Using this formula, effective alternative options can be selected for the enterprise based on 
certain criteria. Based on these formulas, we will consider certain criteria of the investment project 
implemented by the private production company "Azat". The enterprise has 2 alternative options 
for attracting additional means of production. For this, the question of making a financial decision 
to buy an M1 machine or an M2 machine was put forward. The M2 machine has lower output and 
higher profit per unit of output. 
table. 
Indicators 
Fixed costs 
Product 
to the 
unitoperating income 
M1 lathe 
15,000 
20 
M2 lathe 
21,000 
24 
The following calculations are performed using a decision tree. 
The financial manager examines the demand for the annual goods produced by the machine tools, and 
the annual production probability is determined as follows: 
X1 = 1200 units with a probability of 0.4; X2 = 
2000 units with probability 0.6; 
0.4 1200 
20x1200-15000 = 90000 thousand 
s. 
A
1
M
1 
0.6 2000 
20x2000-15000 = 25000 thousand 
s. 
A
2
M
2 
0.4 1200 
24x1200-21000 = 7800 thousand 
s. 
0.6 2000 
24x2000-21000 = 2700 thousand 
s. 
Based on the drawing data above, we can calculate the expected mathematical return for each 
project: 
Ye(R1) =9000* 0.4 + 25000*0.6 = 18600 thousand 
sums; Ye(R2) = 7800*0.4 + 27000*0.6 = 19320 thousand 
sums. 
So about the purchase of the M2 machinethe considered option is more economically 
efficient. This method is useful in various fields of managers. For example, management 
accounting is effective in capital investment budgeting and in particular in stock market analysis. 
One of the main goals of commercial enterprises is the calculation of profit, and it is 
important to determine the planned profit in the planning process. 

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method is widely used. Based on the following information, we will consider how to determine 
the income and profit from the sale of the assortment in the ledger method. 
Determining income and profit from the sale of goods using the assortment account book method. 
Name of the 
product 
Realiza
tion 
size. in 
grains 
1 
grain g
whole
salecost. 
amount 
The 
volume of 
sales at 
wholesale 
prices is 
one 
thousand 
sums 
Buy one 
product
plan
nedcost, 
sum 
The cost 
of the 
realized 
product, 
thousand 
sums 
Profit 
from 
plannin
g and 
realizat
ion 
thou
sand 
sums
. 
1- product type 
150000 130 
19500 
95 
18050 
1450 
2- product type 
40000 
300 
12000 
220 
8800 
3200 
3- product type 
200000 215 
43000 
160 
32000 
11000 
Total 
- 
- 
74500 
- 
58850 
15650 
Source: It was prepared based on the information of small i-ch enterprise "A". 
S product production and itsales volume and prices in the markets are the basis for planning 
sales revenue, production costs and profit. 
The method of planning income, expenses and profit from the above realization is also 
called direct calculation in most cases. Based on market forecasts, the income of the 3 types of 
products planned in the enterprise under analysis is 74,500 thousand soums. The costs included in 
the cost of the product are planned in the amount of 58,850 thousand soums. As a result of general 
observations, production forecast indicators based on 3 types of products show that 2 and 3 types 
of products have more profit opportunities. The main reason for the lack of production units of 2 
types of products is the ability to meet market demand. Of course, this type of activity requires 
attracting significant financial resources for the enterprise. Attracting investment resources for 
projects and turning them into advanced capital for the production process depends on the 
formation of financial resources. At the same time, there are a number of financial instruments for 
attracting such financial resources, with the help of which opportunities for managing debt funds 
for the benefit of enterprises are formed. At the end of the financial forecast, the amount of free 
cash flow (EPO) is also determined: At the same time, there are a number of financial instruments 
for attracting such financial resources, with the help of which opportunities for managing debt 
funds for the benefit of enterprises are formed. At the end of the financial forecast, the amount of 
free cash flow (EPO) is also determined: At the same time, there are a number of financial 
instruments for attracting such financial resources, with the help of which opportunities for 
managing debt funds for the benefit of enterprises are formed. At the end of the financial forecast, 
the amount of free cash flow (EPO) is also determined: 
It is important to remember that EPO is the difference between additional capital expenditures 
and working capital needs generated in the current year. 
When most companies determine their capital needs by designing balance sheets, the following formula 
can be used without changing the ratios: 
Need for additional 
funds 
= 
Demand for 
asset growth 
- 
Spontaneous 
growth of 
passives 
- 
Growth in 
retained earnings