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You never know. So don’t assume that you should. Plan for several possible
futures.
Fallacy: You Can Know What You Want
The second premise of planning—that you can know what you want in the future
—is slightly dubious, too. George Bernard Shaw hit it squarely when he wrote,
“There are two tragedies in life. One is not to get your heart’s desire. The other
is to get it.”
Like almost everyone, I’ve always known what I wanted. Since 1962, it has
been to be the next Arnold Palmer, the next editor of Sports Illustrated, the next
F. Lee Bailey, the next David Ogilvy, and the next coach of the Minneapolis
Cub 12 champions.
Businesses work the same way. They don’t like what they once wanted, so
they change their minds. Most want to get bigger, then realize that bigger often
means less profitable. A few companies yearn to be the very best, then realize
the market doesn’t appreciate the quality and won’t pay for it. Some companies
want to attack a niche, then learn that their competitors had good reasons for

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avoiding that niche all those years.
The very premises on which planning is based seem flawed from the
beginning.
Does this mean that you shouldn’t plan? Not at all. It does mean that
everyone involved in planning should start with three ideas:
First, accept the limitations of planning. Don’t assume that putting eight
smart people in a room with good data will automatically produce something.
Ford put eight smart planners in a room, and out popped the Edsel.
Second, don’t value planning for its result: the plan. The greatest value of the
plan is the process, the thinking that went into it.
Third, don’t plan your future. Plan your people. Outstanding people who fit
your basic broad vision will tend to make the right decisions along the way, not
by following a plan, but by using their skill.