Stages
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Description
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Date
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Timeline
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Cost
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Stage 1: Model template & expansion
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1.1 Trade
• Re-calculation of all the trade matrices in the model and creation of all trade equations
• Removal of Uzbekistan from current regional definitions
• Addition of Uzbekistan to current world aggregates
1.2 Model template
• Addition of new country variables
• Create a dummy model based on regional template
• Create dummy forecast base
• Simulation tests to ensure model coherence maintained
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Start October
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1 month
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Stage 2: Database expansion and data acquisition
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2.1 Trade
• Re-calculation of historical trade matrices and creation of all trade equations
• Removal of Uzbekistan from current regional definitions
• Addition of Uzbekistan to current world aggregates
2.2 Data
• Sourcing of raw data to be used
• Modification of current transformation file to provide consistent historical model data
• Ensure forecast file coherence
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November - December
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2 months
|
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Stage 3: Model estimation
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• Using the data from 2.2, new equations based on the template chosen will be estimated and calibrated for use within the NiGEM framework
• Test model properties on a dummy base to finalise calibration
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January – March (2023)
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3 months
|
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Stage 4: Forecast creation
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• Creation of projected values for all new variables within the NiGEM framework
• Ensure forecast consistency for the forecasts of other countries both with and without Uzbekistan addition
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April
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1 month
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Stage 5: Final simulation testing
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Full review of standard tests using latest forecast base and Uzbekistan model
Full simulation review of all standard model tests to ensure the new country does not adversely affect the global model as a whole
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May - June
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2 months
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Stage 6: Inclusion in climate model (Optional)
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Total cost:
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