The 50th Law (with 50 Cent)

Hypercertainty: When we are on our own and think about our
decisions and plans, we naturally feel doubts. Have we chosen the right
career path? Did we say the right thing to get the job? Are we adopting
the best strategy? But when we are in the group, this doubting,
reflective mechanism is neutralized. Let us say the group has to decide
on an important strategy. We feel the urgency to act. Arguing and
deliberating is tiring, and where will it end? We feel the pressure to
decide and get behind the decision. If we dissent, we might be
marginalized or excluded, and we recoil from such possibilities.
Furthermore, if everyone seems to agree that this is the right course of
action, we are compelled to feel confident about the decision. And so
the fourth effect on us is to make us feel more certain about what we
and our colleagues are doing, which makes us all the more prone to
taking risks.
This is what happens in financial crazes and bubbles—if everyone is
betting on the price of tulips or South Sea stock (see chapter 6) or
subprime mortgages, it must be a sure thing. Those who raise doubts
are simply being too cautious. As individuals, it is hard to resist what
others seem so certain about. We don’t want to miss out. Furthermore,
if we were among just a few who bought this stock, and it failed, we
would feel ridiculous and ashamed, sadly responsible for being such a
sucker. But covered by thousands doing the same, we are shielded
from feeling accountable, which increases the likelihood we will take
such risks in the group setting.
If as individuals we had some plan that was clearly ridiculous,
others would warn us and bring us back down to earth, but in a group
the opposite happens—everyone seems to validate the scheme, no
matter how delusional (such as invading Iraq and expecting to be
greeted as liberators), and there are no outsiders to splash some cold
water on us.
Whenever you feel unusually certain and excited about a plan or
idea, you must step back and gauge whether it is a viral group effect
operating on you. If you can detach yourself for a moment from your
excitement, you might notice how your thinking is used to rationalize

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your emotions, to confirm the certainty you want to feel. Never
relinquish your ability to doubt, reflect, and consider other options—
your rationality as an individual is your only protection against the
madness that can overcome a group.
Group Dynamics
Since the beginning of recorded history, we can observe certain
patterns that human groups fall into almost automatically, as if they
were subject to particular mathematical or physical laws. The following
are the most common dynamics that you must study in the groups that
you belong to or pass through.