The Impact of Global Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution and Sustainable Harvest of Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) in Brazil
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(a)
Fig. 3
Brazilian municipalities that harvest Hancornia speciosa. Each circle indicates the central position of the municipality. The gradient of the monochromatic color shows the productivity (a) and value of production (b) log-transfomed (LogX ? 1) of Hancornia speciosa by municipality Table 2
Best models (DAIC \ 2) for productivity and value of production of Harconia speciosa in brazilian municipalities Model r
AIC Productivity ENM 0.157
129.073 ENM, HDI
0.164 130.885
ENM, GNP 0.162
131.006 Value
HDI, GPD 0.188
82.543 ENM, HDI, GPD 0.201 83.857
The predictor variables were ENM (Ecological Niche Model), UC (Unity of conservation), GPD (Gross Domestic Product per Capita), and HDI (Municipal Human Development Index) Environmental Management 123
Indeed, H. speciosa has been used to supplement the financial resources for human populations that use these resources (see Lima et al. 2013
). In addition, the positive relationship of average harvest with the ecological niche model suggests that it is possible to make inferences about the impact on the fruit harvest considering predicted cli- mate changes. H. speciosa species will lose suitable habitat in futures scenarios. The loss of suitable habitat for species has been recorded in several studies with plants in Brazil (Diniz-Filho et al. 2009a ,
, c ; Nabout et al. 2011 ; Simon
et al. 2013
). Moreover, it is expected that in future climate scenarios, the municipalities that actually extracted H. speciosa will lose or decrease their amount of extraction. This scenario is conservative because other variables, such as land use, change of pollinators, and pests, were not considered (Hannah et al. 2002 ). This is especially important considering that the Cerrado has gone through an intense process of occupation and conversion of land use, mainly for grazing and agriculture (e.g., soybeans and sugar cane) (Myers et al. 2000 ; Sawyer
2008 ) .
The loss of suitable habitat for H. speciosa due to the consequences of global climate change might affect municipalities that currently use this species as a sustain- able use product, thus hurting the local economy. In fact, some future projections are designing scenarios in which the economy will undergo major changes (Grossmann et al. 2009 , Nabout et al. 2011 ). Thus, it is of great importance to predict the impact of global climate change in a local and regional context, as in the context of this study. However, strategies to minimize their effects must be conducted on a global scale through partnerships and scientific interna- tional political treaties (Kyoto Protocol) (Reid et al. 2010
; Grossmann et al. 2009 ).
gating the relationship between sustainable use and the impact of climate change because, as in the case of H. speciosa, municipalities that use this fruit may be strongly affected by global climate change. Thus, some considera- tions and final guidelines should be highlighted: (1) Con- servation of H. speciosa—strategies such as creating Unity of Conservation and Unity of sustainable harvesting are important for biodiversity conservation and management of the species. Moreover, considering future changes in the geographical distribution of the species, it is important to delineate future protected areas, or areas where future appropriate presentation for the occurrence of this species. -0.6 -0.5
-0.4 -0.3
-0.2 -0.1
0.0 0.1
0.2 0.3
Delta Suitabilty 0.0
0.2 0.4
0.6 0.8
1.0 1.2
1.4 1.6
1.8 2.0
2.2 2.4
2.6 2.8
Productivity and value of production (Log X+1) Value of production Productivity Increase of suitability Decrease of suitability Fig. 4
Relationship between delta suitability (future–actual suitability) and the harvest of Hancornia speciosa for the 74 investigated municipalities. Negative values in X axis indicate loss of suitability in future scenarios Table 3 Importance and angular coefficient (stand. coeff.) for each predictor variables of productivity and value of production of Har- conia speciosa in brazilian municipalities Productivity Value of production Importance Stand coeff Importance Stand coeff ENM 0.98
0.397 0.352
0.128 UC 0.265 -0.063 0.241
-0.012 GPD
0.264 -0.057
0.945 0.443
HDI 0.277
-0.073 0.985
-0.529 The importance considers the AIC across all models in the set this variable occurs. It ranges from 0 to 1, in which the closer to 1 indi- cates that the variable occurred in the best models Environmental Management 123
(2) Proactive actions—Actions in Federal, State, or Municipal level should be taken to reduce the risk of loss of H. speciosa. Such as selection of resistant plants, germ- plasm banks as well as creating conservation areas in appropriate regions considering future climate conditions as highlighted in the previous item. (3) New producers municipalities—Encourage increased productivity in new municipalities that are currently in suitable climatic con- ditions and does not have loss in future climate scenarios and also stimulate municipalities that will be in the future in better climatic conditions. Thus, future studies are nee- ded to investigate the adequate management of populations of this species, knowing the extraction limits allowed for the maintenance of the individuals of this species. These information together are critical for decision making for the conservation and management of H. speciosa to Brazil. Acknowledgments We dedicate this work to Professor. Dr. Roberto Prado de Morais (in memoriam) for encouragement and dedication to the study of Environmental Sciences. JCN and HFC were partially supported by CAPES and Fundac¸a˜o de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Goia´s (Auxpe 2036/2013). The work by JCN has been supported by CNPq grant (306719/2013-4). HFC was supported by University Research and Scientific Production Support Program (PROBIP/UEG). References Almeida SP, Proenc¸a CEB, Sano SM, Ribeiro JF (1998) Cerrado: espe´cies vegetais u´teis, 462. Embrapa-CPAC, Planaltina, DF Assad ED, Pellegrino GQ, Pinto HS (2010) Mudanc¸as clima´ticas e o Semia´rido brasileiro ICID ? 18. In: 2 a Confereˆncia Interna- cional: Clima, Sustentabilidade e Desenvolvimento em Regio˜es Semia´ridas. 13. 16–20 de Agosto. Fortaleza. Ceara´ Beck J (2013) Predicting climate change effects on agriculture from ecological niche modeling: who profits, who loses? Clim Change 116(2013):177–189 Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Springer, New York, p 488 Diniz-Filho JAF, Nabout JC, Telles MPC, Soares TN, Rangel TFLVB (2009a) A review of techniques for spatial modeling in geographical, conservation and landscape genetics. Genet Mol Biol 32:203–211 Diniz-Filho JAF, Bini LM, Rangel TFLVB, Loyola RD, Nogues- Bravo D, Arau´jo MB (2009b) Partitioning and mapping uncer- tainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change. Ecography 32:897–906 Diniz-Filho JAF, Oliveira G, Bini LM, Loyola RD, Nabout JC, Rangel TFLVB (2009c) Conservation biogeography and climate change in the Brazilian Cerrado. Nat Conserv 7:100–112 Diniz-Filho JAF, Nabout JC, Bini LM, Loyola RD, Rangel TFLVB, Nogues-Bravo D, Arau´jo MB (2010) Ensemble forecasting shifts in climatically suitable areas for Tropidacris cristata (Orthoptera: Acridoidea: Romaleidae). Insect Conser Divers 3:213–221 Diniz-Filho JAF, Rodrigues H, Telles MPC, Oliveira G, Terribile LC, Soares TN, Nabout JC (2015) Correlation between genetic diversity and environmental suitability: taking uncertainty from ecological niche
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