But actually, your whole style of trading involves staying with a trend for years. So isn't what you
are saying contradictory?
That kind of trend—a trend that is economically justified—is different. You have to see the supply/demand
balance change early, buy early, and only buy markets that are going to go on for years. By "trend following," I
meant buying a market just because it goes up and selling it just because it goes down.
What trading rules do you live by?
Look for hysteria to see if you shouldn't go the opposite way, but don't go the opposite way until you have
fully examined the situation. Also, remember that the world is always changing. Be aware of change. Buy change. You
should be willing to buy or sell anything. So many people say, "I could never buy that kind of stock," "I could never
buy utilities," "I could never play commodities." You should be flexible and alert to investing in anything.
If you were counseling the average investor, what would you tell him?
Don't do anything until you know what you are doing. If you make 50 percent two years in a row and then
lose 50 percent in the third year, you would actually be worse off than if you just put your money in a money market
fund. Wait for something to come along that you know is right. Then take your profit, put it back in the money market
fund, and just wait again. You will come out way ahead of everybody else.
Are you ever wrong on a major position play? That is, are one of your almost sure shots ever
wrong, or are they so well selected that they just invariably go?
I don't want to make it sound like I don't know how to lose money—because I know how to lose money better
than most people—but there has not been a major mistake in a long time. But you have to remember that I don't
trade that often. It is not as though I'm making three decisions a month. I may make three decisions a year, or five
decisions a year, and I'll stay with them.
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