I assume that if you trade all markets the same, you probably don't believe in optimization.
[Optimization refers to the process of testing many variations of a system for the past and then selecting
the best-performing version for actual trading. The problem with this fine-tuned approach is that the link
between past and future performance is often a very rough one.]
Absolutely. We have a saying here: "It is incredible how rich you can get by not being perfect." We are not
looking for the optimum method; we are looking for the hardiest method. Anyone can sit down and devise a perfect
system for the past.
Are there any technical indicators that you have found to be overrated?
Overbought/oversold indicators. None of them seem to prove out in testing.
Any types of indicators you consider particularly valuable?
Although I don't really trade off of them, there are two that come to mind. First, if a market doesn't respond
to important news in the way that it should, it is telling you something very important. For example, when the news
of the Iran/Iraq war first came out over the newswire, gold was only able to move up $1.1 said to myself, "A Middle
East war has just broken out and the best the gold market can do is go up $1; it has to be a great sale." The market
broke sharply after that. The second item is something that Ed Seykota taught me. When a market makes a historic
high, it is telling you something. No matter how many people tell you why the market shouldn't be that high, or why
nothing has changed, the mere fact that the price is at a new high tells you something has changed.
Any other lessons that you learned from Ed Seykota?
Ed Seykota actually explained his philosophy one day: "You can risk 1 percent of your capital, you can risk 5
percent, or you can risk 10 percent, but you better realize that the more you risk, the more volatile the results are
going to be." And he was absolutely right.
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