How often do you make a trade?
Well, there is a difference between making a trade and deciding to buy bonds in 1981. I've owned bonds since
1981, but I sell around the position. I make trades, but basically I own them. I went short the dollar at the end of
1984. Now, I have made a fair amount of trades in currencies since the end of 1984, but it is basically one trade with
a lot of trades around it.
Very few investors or traders are as successful as you have been over time. What makes you
different?
I don't play. I just don't play.
I can understand that. But still, very few people can analyze the same fundamentals you are
looking at and so consistently be correct in assessing all the variables.
Just don't do anything until you know you've got it right. As an example, until you see American agriculture
hit a low, then no matter what happens in the world—unless the world is going to stop eating—you can't go wrong.
American agriculture is now so competitive, and so many marginal farmers have been washed out, that it has to go
up. You just watch American agriculture deteriorate, deteriorate, deteriorate, and then you buy. You may buy early or
late. In my case, usually a little bit early. But, so what? The worst that happens is you bought it too early. Who cares?
Is there anything else besides the fact that you are very selective that sets you apart?
I have no boundaries. I am totally flexible. I am open to everything, and I pursue everything. I have no more
compunction about speculating in Singapore dollars or shorting Malaysian palm oil than I do about buying General
Motors.
What happens when you have one scenario for currencies, one for the stock market, one for the
bond market, and not everything meshes?
Then I won't do anything. It happens all the time. I don't do anything until all the pieces fit.
What is your opinion about chart reading?
I haven't met a rich technician. Excluding, of course, technicians who sell their technical services and make a
lot of money.
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