It's odd you say that, because you have been far more successful than most traders.
I guess my point is that as a broker I was at an even higher echelon. I was really good at it, and it suited my
personality.
So, why did you get into trading?
I started trading because some of my customers said, "You know the market so well, why don't you just
trade?" I resisted at first, but after six months of holding out, I started trading. From there it just evolved.
Do you remember your first trades?
My first trade was a long position, and I made some money. Then I put on a long bond/short Ginnie Mae
spread, which was almost like being long. The market went down, and I lost all the money I had made, plus $50,000
more. Since I was making about $50,000 per month as a broker, my attitude was that I basically broke even that
month. But I didn't like the feeling at all. So, I cut my position size down and started trading a little more actively.
This happened during the bear market of 1979. The problem was that I was bullish all the way down.
Why were you bullish?
My customers kept telling me that rates couldn't go much higher.* For example, I was handling the orders for
CitiBank and Citicorp and they were buying all the way down. These were renowned people saying that they had an
opinion and backing it up with deeds.
*Bond prices fall when interest rates rise. This is a basic concept that is sometimes confusing to the novice.
The reason that bond prices decline if rates increase can be explained as follows: If rates rise, itmeans that all
existinglower-yieldinginstruments are less attractive to investors. To induce an investor to purchase these lower-
coupon bonds, their prices must fall sufficiently so that the return is equivalent to the return on the higher-coupon
bond purchased at face value.
What would you do today in the same situation?
Now, I know the characteristics of various institutions. Let's take Citi-Bank. Back then, I was buying because
they were buying. Now, if Citi-Bank was buying, I might conclude that they were just reallocating their assets or
changing the duration of their portfolio. Today, I have little regard for the views of portfolio managers, because their
outlook tends to cover a much longer time perspective than mine. I didn't understand that back then.
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