Isn't that the basic rationalization for technical analysis?
Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo.
That's an interesting statement. What's right and what's black magic?
There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the
future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to
draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.
For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any
attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he's not going to take a patient's temperature. But, of course, that
would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is
—whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to
give you an edge.
Technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior.
By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the
details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is
absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.
Do you sometimes put on a trade because you look at a chart and say, "I've seen this pattern
before, and it is often a forerunner of a market advance." That is, even though you may not have any
fundamental reasons?
Yes, I will do that sometimes. I would only add that, as a trader who has seen a great deal and been in a lot
of markets, there is nothing disconcerting to me about a price move out of a trading range that nobody understands.
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