The night-walkers of Uganda

 
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Growing cities face catastrophe,
says UN
• Urban dwellers to outgrow rural population
next year
• Big rise in poverty, slums and pollution is feared
John Vidal, environment editor
June 28, 2007
Humanity will make the historic move from a rural 
to an urban species sometime in the next year, 
according to the latest UN population figures. Africa 
and Asia alone are expected to add 1.6 billion 
people to their cities over the next 25 years. 
The speed and scale of global urbanization is so 
great that most countries are not prepared for the 
effect it will have, Thoraya Obaid, executive director 
of the UN Population Fund, says: “In human history 
we have never seen urban growth like this.” 
For thousands of years more people have lived in 
rural areas than in urban areas, but as Ms Obaid 
said: “In 2008, half of the world’s population will live 
in urban areas. Within one generation, five billion 
people, or 60% of humanity, will live in cities. The 
urban population of Africa and Asia will double in 
this time.” She added that each week the number of 
people living in cities grows by nearly a million. 
“Most cities [in developing countries] already have 
many problems; these include crime, not enough 
clean water and sanitation, and slums. But the 
problems could get worse. “If we do not plan 
ahead it will be a catastrophe”, said Ms Obaid. 
“The changes are too fast to allow cities to react. If 
governments wait, it will be too late.”
According to the State of the World Population 
Report, large-scale population growth will take 
place in the cities of Asia, Africa and Latin America. 
The report says that the largest move to cities will 
be in Asia, where the number of people living in 
cities will almost double to 2.6 billion in 2030. The 
population of cities in Africa is expected to grow by 
440 million in the same period, and in Latin America 
and the Caribbean by nearly 200 million. Rural 
populations are expected to decrease worldwide by 
28 million people. 
But urbanization can be positive. “No country has 
ever achieved significant economic growth without 
urbanization, said Ms Obaid. “Although there will 
be more concentrated poverty in the urban areas, 
moving to a city can also offer poor people the best 
chance of escaping poverty. The potential benefits 
of urbanization, for example, easier access to 
health centres and education, are far greater than 
the disadvantages.” 
However, the report warns that if we do nothing, 
the growth of urbanization will mean more slums 
and poverty, as well as a rise in migration away 
from poor regions. “Today one billion people live in 
slums, 90% of whom are in developing countries. 
The fight against poverty will take place in the 
slums. To win it, politicians need to be proactive and 
start working with the urban poor. This is the only 
way to defeat urban poverty,” said Ms Obaid. 
The climate will play an important part in the shape 
of cities. In a vicious circle, climate change will 
increase the demand for energy as more people 
need air conditioning. This energy demand will add 
to greenhouse gas emissions which could raise 
temperatures in urban areas by 
2-6°C
. “Heat, 
pollution, smog and ground-level ozone [from 
cities] will affect surrounding areas. This will reduce 
agricultural production, increase health risks, and 
will produce tornadoes and thunderstorms. The 
effects of climate change on urban water supplies 
are expected to be dramatic,” the report says. 
Cities like New Delhi, in the drier areas, will be hit