The Sun Corridor Seminar: paf 591, Spring 2006 Final Class Presentation

The Sun Corridor Seminar: PAF 591, Spring 2006

• Final Class Presentation

• Instructors:

• Robert Lang, Virginia Tech

• John Hall, ASU

What’s in This Talk?

• Review of Megapolitan Area Geography

• Arizona Sun Corridor Geography

• The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms

• Central Class Findings

• What’s in This Talk? Next Steps in the Sun Corridor Project

The Reality is That They Have Already Statistically Merged

Business 2.0 November 2005 Megapolitan Area Centerfold

Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography

2006 Metropolitan Hierarchy

Evolving 20th Century Metropolitan Form

21st Century Corridor Megapolitan Form

Urban Realms

Arizona Sun Corridor’s Types of Urban Realms

Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona

• Housing and Equity

Housing/Equity Issues in the Sun Corridor Realms

• Housing Market Values by Realm

• Housing Appreciation Rates by Realm

• Housing Burden and Overcrowding by Realm

• Comparisons between Phoenix and Tucson Housing Markets – Simultaneity?

• Comparison between Phoenix & Tucson Housing Markets

• Changing demographics will change the form of housing.

The Sun Corridor is a Destination for People who are Relocating

“The West is The Best” - Jim Morrison, The End, 1967

Estimated Median Market Value

Housing Appreciation

The Sun Corridor had 3 out of the Top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions with Highest Rates of House Price Appreciation

Housing Burden

Overcrowded Housing

Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities

Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities

Phoenix and Tucson Comparison

The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic

• Median age of White population in Arizona: 40

• Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years.

• Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market.

• Inclusion of elderly family members in household.
• Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a priority
• ‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive
• Less resistance to attached housing

• The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor.

Education

Education in the Sun Corridor

• How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?

“Living on the Kindness of Strangers”

• Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor

• The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average

• The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average

English Language Learners (ELL)

• Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%)

• Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs

Higher Education in the Sun Corridor

• In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona-tied for 97th)

• Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A

• Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th

Community Colleges

• Sun Corridor is a national leader

• The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students)

• Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training

Leading Realms in Higher Education

Exurban Realms

Very Underserved Realms

Economy

Topics

• Composition of the Economy

• Realm Share of Development

• Employment Centers

Economic Composition

• Leading Industries

• Construction/Real Estate
• Consumer Services

• Secondary Industries

• Aerospace
• Producer Services
• F.I.RE
• Law, Marketing
• High-Tech/Bio
• Military
• Entrepreneurial

Market Share

Inventory – Office Development

Inventory – Industrial Development

Inventory – Retail Development

Realm by Realm Assets, Opportunities & Challenges

Employment Centers

Economic Development in the Realms

• Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs

• Assets
• Prescott Airport
• Opportunities
• Anthem
• Lake Pleasant
• Challenges
• Connectivity to Phoenix
• Transportation Corridors

Economic Development in the Realms

• Central Valley: Employment Center

• Assets
• Downtown Phoenix
• Sky Harbor
• I-10 Distribution Corridor
• Opportunities
• Redevelopment
• Stadium/Arena
• Challenges
• Aging Infrastructure
• Suburban Flight
• Residential Composition

Economic Development in the Realms

• East Valley: Young & Emerging

• Assets
• ASU
• Chandler/Price Corridor
• Mesa Airports
• Opportunities
• SanTan Corridor
• Original Core Redevelopment
• Challenges
• Available Land

Economic Development in the Realms

• Foothills: Uptown

• Assets
• Wealth
• Resorts
• Opportunities
• Oro Valley corridor
• Marana
• Challenges
• Connectivity to Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor

Economic Development in the Realms

• Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway

• Assets
• I-19
• Opportunities
• Transition center between Mexico/US
• I-19 connection to/from Mexico
• Challenges
• Connectivity to other realms

Infrastructure

Population Growth=More Congestion

Highway Projects in Sun Corridor

Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling the Gaps

CANAMEX

PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations

• PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations

• TUC: 4 million passengers 43,000 air carrier operations

Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model

• Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model

• Less complex, for passengers, industry
• Better control of environmental issues
• Requires authority

• Los Angeles = reliever system

• Redundancy
• Complex airspace, connection, access
• Shares economic burden, boom

• Recent trends  PHX = LAX

MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it

• MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it

• Lack of connection between north, south, Mid

• Increasing population pressure from Mid

• Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from both north, south and Mid

Freeways/Highways:

• Freeways/Highways:

• Congestion—Central Corridor
• Tucson must build highways
• Need for increased planning between realms
• Revenue challenge

• Aviation

• Current population imbalance drives reliever system, LAX style
• Southward population shift may demand regional airport in Mid-Corridor
• Regional airport, population pressure may push rail effort

Environment and Open Space

Active Management Areas

AMA Annual Use

Sun Corridor: Water

Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure

Central Arizona Project

Groundwater

Air Quality 2004 Annual Daily Average

Open Space

Open Space

• Environmental Impact

• Economic Impact

• Preservation of significant areas

• Quality of Life

Effective Open Space Conservation

• Local political and constituent support

• Strong state enabling legislation

• Healthy local economy

• Community’s public financing capacity

• Borrowing history
• Bonding capacity
• Degree of fiscal power and authority
• Tax base

Open Space and the Realms

What Future?

Conclusions

General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications

• The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley

• The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips

• Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation, Environmental Pres. and Economic Development

• Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs Some Measure of Autonomy

• But Realms also Need More Effective Integration and Coordination

Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications

• Core Realms

• Infill and Redevelopment

• Favored Quarter Realms

• Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing

• Maturing Suburbs Realms

• Create Mixed Use Centers

• Emerging Exurban Realms

• Open Space Preservation

Next Steps

• June 2006 – Rollout of Key Findings Including Projections for Population, Employment, Housing, and Commercial Construction in a Joint ASU-VT Press Conference

• Fall 2006 – Morrison Institute Publishes Sun Corridor Final Report