The Sun Corridor Seminar: PAF 591, Spring 2006 Instructors: Robert Lang, Virginia Tech John Hall, ASU
What’s in This Talk? Review of Megapolitan Area Geography Arizona Sun Corridor Geography The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms Central Class Findings What’s in This Talk? Next Steps in the Sun Corridor Project
The Reality is That They Have Already Statistically Merged
Business 2.0 November 2005 Megapolitan Area Centerfold
Original 2005 Megapolitan Geography
2006 Metropolitan Hierarchy
Evolving 20th Century Metropolitan Form
21st Century Corridor Megapolitan Form
Urban Realms
Arizona Sun Corridor’s Types of Urban Realms
Arizona 2000 Population Center for the Future of Arizona
Housing/Equity Issues in the Sun Corridor Realms Housing Market Values by Realm Housing Appreciation Rates by Realm Housing Burden and Overcrowding by Realm Comparisons between Phoenix and Tucson Housing Markets – Simultaneity? Comparison between Phoenix & Tucson Housing Markets Changing demographics will change the form of housing.
The Sun Corridor is a Destination for People who are Relocating
“The West is The Best” - Jim Morrison, The End, 1967
Estimated Median Market Value
Housing Appreciation
The Sun Corridor had 3 out of the Top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas and Divisions with Highest Rates of House Price Appreciation
Housing Burden
Overcrowded Housing
Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities
Phoenix and Tucson both outpace comparison cities
Phoenix and Tucson Comparison
Median age of White population in Arizona: 40 Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home buyers of the next 30 years. Survey data indicates different housing preferences for this market. - Inclusion of elderly family members in household.
- Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a priority
- ‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive
- Less resistance to attached housing
The emergence of Latino home buyers will change the urban form of the Sun Corridor.
Education
Education in the Sun Corridor How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher education systems prepare students for the higher level, often high-tech jobs of the future?
“Living on the Kindness of Strangers” Discrepancy between those who are transplants to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated in the Sun Corridor The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s degree is above the national average The percentage of those over 25 with a high school diploma is at the national average
English Language Learners (ELL) Spanish is the primary home language of 20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor (Nat. Average 10%) Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual Education programs and replaced them with Structured English Immersion (SEI) programs
Higher Education in the Sun Corridor In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one University in the top 100 (University of Arizona-tied for 97th) Every other megapolitan region has at least one university ranked higher than the U of A Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the University of Miami, tied for 55th
Community Colleges The Maricopa County Community System is the largest in the nation (over 250,000 students) Community colleges serve a preparation function for four-year colleges and engage in job training
Leading Realms in Higher Education
Exurban Realms
Very Underserved Realms
Economy
Topics Composition of the Economy Realm Share of Development Employment Centers
Economic Composition Leading Industries - Construction/Real Estate
- Consumer Services
Secondary Industries - Aerospace
- Producer Services
- High-Tech/Bio
- Military
- Entrepreneurial
Market Share
Inventory – Office Development
Inventory – Industrial Development
Inventory – Retail Development
Realm by Realm Assets, Opportunities & Challenges
Employment Centers
Economic Development in the Realms Northwest Valley: The Room Upstairs - Assets
- Opportunities
- Challenges
- Connectivity to Phoenix
- Transportation Corridors
Economic Development in the Realms Central Valley: Employment Center - Assets
- Downtown Phoenix
- Sky Harbor
- I-10 Distribution Corridor
- Opportunities
- Redevelopment
- Stadium/Arena
- Challenges
- Aging Infrastructure
- Suburban Flight
- Residential Composition
Economic Development in the Realms East Valley: Young & Emerging - Assets
- ASU
- Chandler/Price Corridor
- Mesa Airports
- Opportunities
- SanTan Corridor
- Original Core Redevelopment
- Challenges
Economic Development in the Realms Foothills: Uptown - Assets
- Opportunities
- Oro Valley corridor
- Marana
- Challenges
- Connectivity to Tucson Metro and the Mid Corridor
Economic Development in the Realms Santa Cruz Valley: The Gateway - Assets
- Opportunities
- Transition center between Mexico/US
- I-19 connection to/from Mexico
- Challenges
- Connectivity to other realms
Infrastructure
Population Growth=More Congestion
Highway Projects in Sun Corridor
Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling the Gaps
CANAMEX
PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations PHX: 20 million passengers 504,000 air carrier operations TUC: 4 million passengers 43,000 air carrier operations
Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model - Less complex, for passengers, industry
- Better control of environmental issues
- Requires authority
Los Angeles = reliever system - Redundancy
- Complex airspace, connection, access
- Shares economic burden, boom
Recent trends PHX = LAX
MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it Lack of connection between north, south, Mid Increasing population pressure from Mid Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from both north, south and Mid
Freeways/Highways: Freeways/Highways: - Congestion—Central Corridor
- Tucson must build highways
- Need for increased planning between realms
- Revenue challenge
Aviation - Current population imbalance drives reliever system, LAX style
- Southward population shift may demand regional airport in Mid-Corridor
- Regional airport, population pressure may push rail effort
Environment and Open Space
Active Management Areas
AMA Annual Use
Sun Corridor: Water
Sun Corridor: Water Infrastructure
Central Arizona Project
Groundwater
Air Quality 2004 Annual Daily Average
Open Space
Open Space Environmental Impact Economic Impact Quality of Life
Effective Open Space Conservation Local political and constituent support Strong state enabling legislation Healthy local economy Community’s public financing capacity - Borrowing history
- Bonding capacity
- Degree of fiscal power and authority
- Tax base
Open Space and the Realms
What Future?
Conclusions
General Sun Corridor Key Policy Implications The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation, Environmental Pres. and Economic Development Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs Some Measure of Autonomy
Specific Urban Realm Key Policy Implications Core Realms Favored Quarter Realms - Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing
Maturing Suburbs Realms Emerging Exurban Realms
Next Steps June 2006 – Rollout of Key Findings Including Projections for Population, Employment, Housing, and Commercial Construction in a Joint ASU-VT Press Conference Fall 2006 – Morrison Institute Publishes Sun Corridor Final Report
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