Учредители и издатели журнала Федеральное государственное автономное

Journal of Tax Reform. 2022;8(3):218–235
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ISSN 2412-8872
Kaminsky et al. [29] tested 104 emer- 
ging markets (EMs) between 1960–2003 
with the OLS using panel data. Moreover, 
fiscal policies in developing countries are 
cyclical compared to OECD countries.
Ilzetzki & Végh [30] conducted tests 
with OLS and GMM using quarterly 
1960–2006 panel data for 49 developing 
countries. In the study, there is a positive 
relationship between public consumption 
expenditures and output volatility in de-
veloping countries.
Badinger [31] tested 88 developing 
countries using annual panel data from 
1960–2004, LS, and One Step Regression 
techniques. According to the findings, 
output volatility resulting from changes 
in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy 
is negatively related to economic growth. 
The study advocates fiscal rules that
limit the use of cyclical policy to improve 
growth performance. 
Manasse [32], who relates the fiscal 
policies followed for fluctuations with 
political behavior, tested 50 developing 
countries between 1970–2004 with the 
MARS technique. The study argues that 
the policy response depends on the state 
of the economy and is cyclical during 
a growth period, but counter-cyclical fis-
cal policies are implemented during a re-
cession. He argued that in countries where 
populist policies are common, fiscal sta-
bility can be prevented by fiscal rules and 
that counter-cyclical fiscal policies will 
have a stronger effect.
Studies in the literature have con-
cluded that developing countries imple-
ment cyclical fiscal policies. Research on 
why governments follow a cyclical policy 
in developing countries claims that politi-
cal factors are an important reason for the 
cyclical fiscal policy in these countries. 
These studies show that factors such as 
the type of political regime, the quality of 
institutions, and the level of political po-
larization determine cyclical fiscal policy 
[23, p. 75].
Vegh & Talvi [33] present a model 
that optimizes behavior for 56 countries 
that reveal political distortions during 
periods of growth. The study primarily 
explains the cyclical fiscal policies in de-
veloping countries where there are politi-
cal distortions. According to the research, 
implementation of cyclical fiscal policies is 
preferred because it is low cost. 
Lane [34] tested with the OLS using 
1960–1998 panel data for 22 OECD coun-
tries. According to the findings, cyclical 
fiscal policy is more effective in countries 
with a separation of political powers. 
On the other hand, Abbott & Jones 
[35] carried out a test with the GMM 
using the 1990–2003 panel data for 
20 OECD countries. The study revealed 
that the cyclicality of social security ex-
penditures varies according to the level 
of political polarization. Accordingly, if 
political polarization increases, cyclicali-
ty also increases.
Caballero & Krishnamurthy [36] tes- 
ted 18 developed countries and 13 EMs 
separately with OLS and IV for the years 
1960–2002. According to the findings, 
they concluded that the fiscal policy of 
developing countries is more cyclical than 
that of developed countries, and the use 
of fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical policy 
tool is also related to the development of 
countries.
Wyplosz [37] made separate time 
series analyses for the USA, Germany, 
France, and Sweden countries between 
1971–2001 using the OLS. According 
to the findings, the budget balance acts 
against the conjuncture and the public 
debt creates a balancing effect on the size 
of the output gap. 
Akanni & Osinowo [38] tested Ni-
geria for the period 1970–2010 with the 
OLS. In the study, it is seen that both 
growth and public expenditures have 
high volatility. He also states that fiscal 
discipline is necessary to prevent fluctua-
tions in Nigeria. 
De Mello [39] tested Brazil for the 
period 1995–2004 with the OLS. The 
study revealed that governments re-
spond strongly to changes in borrowing 
by adapting their primary surplus targets 
and institutions are important for fiscal 
sustainability. 
Khemani [40] examined the effects of 
elections on fluctuations in India between 
the years 1960–1992 using the OLS. He 

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