Учредители и издатели журнала Федеральное государственное автономное
Journal of Tax Reform. 2022;8(3):218–235
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10 е Scopus Tax reform
Journal of Tax Reform. 2022;8(3):218–235
222 ISSN 2412-8872 Kaminsky et al. [29] tested 104 emer- ging markets (EMs) between 1960–2003 with the OLS using panel data. Moreover, fiscal policies in developing countries are cyclical compared to OECD countries. Ilzetzki & Végh [30] conducted tests with OLS and GMM using quarterly 1960–2006 panel data for 49 developing countries. In the study, there is a positive relationship between public consumption expenditures and output volatility in de- veloping countries. Badinger [31] tested 88 developing countries using annual panel data from 1960–2004, LS, and One Step Regression techniques. According to the findings, output volatility resulting from changes in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy is negatively related to economic growth. The study advocates fiscal rules that limit the use of cyclical policy to improve growth performance. Manasse [32], who relates the fiscal policies followed for fluctuations with political behavior, tested 50 developing countries between 1970–2004 with the MARS technique. The study argues that the policy response depends on the state of the economy and is cyclical during a growth period, but counter-cyclical fis- cal policies are implemented during a re- cession. He argued that in countries where populist policies are common, fiscal sta- bility can be prevented by fiscal rules and that counter-cyclical fiscal policies will have a stronger effect. Studies in the literature have con- cluded that developing countries imple- ment cyclical fiscal policies. Research on why governments follow a cyclical policy in developing countries claims that politi- cal factors are an important reason for the cyclical fiscal policy in these countries. These studies show that factors such as the type of political regime, the quality of institutions, and the level of political po- larization determine cyclical fiscal policy [23, p. 75]. Vegh & Talvi [33] present a model that optimizes behavior for 56 countries that reveal political distortions during periods of growth. The study primarily explains the cyclical fiscal policies in de- veloping countries where there are politi- cal distortions. According to the research, implementation of cyclical fiscal policies is preferred because it is low cost. Lane [34] tested with the OLS using 1960–1998 panel data for 22 OECD coun- tries. According to the findings, cyclical fiscal policy is more effective in countries with a separation of political powers. On the other hand, Abbott & Jones [35] carried out a test with the GMM using the 1990–2003 panel data for 20 OECD countries. The study revealed that the cyclicality of social security ex- penditures varies according to the level of political polarization. Accordingly, if political polarization increases, cyclicali- ty also increases. Caballero & Krishnamurthy [36] tes- ted 18 developed countries and 13 EMs separately with OLS and IV for the years 1960–2002. According to the findings, they concluded that the fiscal policy of developing countries is more cyclical than that of developed countries, and the use of fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical policy tool is also related to the development of countries. Wyplosz [37] made separate time series analyses for the USA, Germany, France, and Sweden countries between 1971–2001 using the OLS. According to the findings, the budget balance acts against the conjuncture and the public debt creates a balancing effect on the size of the output gap. Akanni & Osinowo [38] tested Ni- geria for the period 1970–2010 with the OLS. In the study, it is seen that both growth and public expenditures have high volatility. He also states that fiscal discipline is necessary to prevent fluctua- tions in Nigeria. De Mello [39] tested Brazil for the period 1995–2004 with the OLS. The study revealed that governments re- spond strongly to changes in borrowing by adapting their primary surplus targets and institutions are important for fiscal sustainability. Khemani [40] examined the effects of elections on fluctuations in India between the years 1960–1992 using the OLS. He |
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