Uzbekistan’s Transformation: Strategies and Perspectives

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SWP Research Paper 
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik 
German Institute for 
International and Security Affairs 
Andrea Schmitz 
Uzbekistan’s Transformation 
Strategies and Perspectives 
SWP Research Paper 12 
September 2020, Berlin 

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Abstract 
∎ 
The presidential transition in Uzbekistan represents a novel development 
in the post-Soviet space. Regime insider Shavkat Mirziyoyev has succeeded 
in initiating change without provoking destabilisation. His reform pro-
gramme aims to liberalise the economy and society while leaving the politi-
cal system largely untouched. 
∎ 
Implementation is centrally controlled and managed, in line with the 
country’s long history of state planning. Uzbeks accept painful adjust-
ments in the expectation of a rising standard of living. And the economic 
reforms are rapidly creating incontrovertible facts on the ground. 
∎ 
Uzbekistan has also made significant moves towards political liberalisa-
tion, but remains an authoritarian state whose institutional framework 
and presidential system are not up for discussion. Rather than democrati-
sation, the outcome of the transformation is more likely to be “enlightened 
authoritarianism” backed by an alliance of old and new elites. 
∎ 
Nevertheless, there are good reasons for Germany and Europe to support 
the reforms. Priority should be placed on the areas most relevant for 
fostering an open society: promoting political competition, encouraging 
open debate, fostering independent public engagement and enabling 
genuine participation. 

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SWP Research Paper