War on Terror Partnership and Growing/Mounting/Increasing/Rising Militant Extremism in Pakistan

II. 
Increased Water Demand 
From 1961 up to 2011, the population of Pakistan has increased at an average growth 
rate of 2.61% which has slowed down to 1.81% from 2001- 2011. Despite the 
slowing down in the population growth rate, the per capita water availability in 
Pakistan has decreased from 5,260 cubic meters in 1951 to about 1,040 cubic meters 
in 2010. (Akhtar, 2013) Moreover, rapid urbanization and the change in life 
standards are additional factors that has resulted in water crises in Pakistan. The 
change in diet from simple to complex ones has resulted in more per capita caloric 
intake, which has, for example, increased from 1,812 calories in 1961-1963 to 2,340 
calories per person in 2001-2003. (Akhtar, 2013) The burgeoning population and 
the rising demand for more water in future will further aggravate Pakistan’s quest 
for water security. 
III. 
Indian Dams on the Western Rivers 
For the first three years of the Indus negotiations (1951-1954), both India and 
Pakistan failed to agree to a common plan for the apportionment of the Indus River 
System. The World Bank then gave its own plan in February 1954 which is called 
the World Bank’s Plan of 1954. The Plan granted India “exclusive uses” of the 
Eastern Rivers, and Pakistan the “exclusive uses” of the Western Rivers only with 
limited Indian uses allowed on the river Jhelum (a Western River) in Kashmir.
3
However, in the later years of the Indus mediations, India demanded limited uses on 
the other two Western Rivers as well, especially for hydel generation. Pakistan 
3
“Proposal by the International Bank Representative for a Plan for the Development and use of the 
Indus Basin Waters,” February 4, 1954.

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Pakistan’s Water Security: Contemporary Challenges and Options
129 
resisted such Indian rights on the Western Rivers. John Briscoe elaborated on 
Pakistan’s anxieties as:
Pakistan was well aware that the backbone of its economy was irrigated agriculture 
that was built around the natural flows of the rivers and thus worried that its security 
would be seriously compromised if India built dams which could alter the timing of 
water coming to Pakistan, especially from the Jhelum and the Chenab. (Briscoe et 
al, 2005) 
However, Pakistan failed and according to Article III Paragraph (2) of the IWT, 
India was asked to:
…let flow all the waters of the Western Rivers, and shall not permit any interference 
with these waters, except for the following uses, …(a) Domestic Use; (b) Non-
Consumptive Use; (c) Agricultural Use,… (d) Generation of hydroelectric power as 
set out in Annexure D. 
To address Pakistan’s quest for water security against possible Indian adverse 
manipulation of the structures allowed to India, Indian structures had to meet a set 
criterion set out in Annexure D of the Treaty. This criterion was the most critical