Way of the turtle

Dos and Don’ts for Thinking Like a Turtle
1.
Trade in the present: Do not dwell on the past or try to predict
the future. The former is counterproductive, and the latter is
impossible.
2.
Think in terms of probabilities, not prediction: Instead of trying
to be right by predicting the market, focus on methods in which
the probabilities are in your favor for a successful outcome over
the long run.
3.
Take responsibility for your own trades: Don’t blame your 
mistakes and failures on others, the markets, your broker,
and so forth. Take responsibility for your mistakes and learn
from them.
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Way of the Turtle

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Playing Favorites
Some of the Turtles had a hard time with this concept; they felt the
need to be right and to predict the markets. For this reason, even
after the first month’s heating oil example, they did not trade con-
sistently. I remember one in particular who was convinced that
Rich had given me and a few of the others secret rules that he had
not shared with the class at large. That idea was completely ludi-
crous. Why would Rich intentionally leave out important infor-
mation and then give traders his own money for them to lose, not
to mention losing his bet? 
There were no hidden secrets. The truth was that I actually used
a much simpler trading method than most of the other Turtles
employed. I traded using 100 percent of my account allocated to the
longer-term 10-week breakout system. This meant fewer trades and
less monitoring of the markets. I certainly was not doing anything
unusual or acting on information that had not been made public.
Excuses, Excuses
The idea that Rich had left out some key ideas was the easiest way
for our paranoid Turtle to explain his inability to trade successfully
during the program. This is a common problem in trading and in
life. Many people blame their failure on others or on circumstances
outside their control. They fail and then blame everyone but them-
selves. Inability to take responsibility for one’s own actions and their
consequences is probably the single most significant factor leading
to failure.
Trading is a good way to break that habit. In the end, it is only
you and the markets. You cannot hide from the markets. If you
Think Like a Turtle 
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trade well, over the long run you will see good results. If you trade
poorly, over the long run you will lose money. Despite the obvious
and unavoidable link between what you do and your trading results,
some people still try to blame the markets. They invent scenarios
in which the “specialists” or another mysterious group of traders
conspires to steal their money rather than taking the blame for their
own trading mistakes.
Although there is no question that there many traders endeav-
oring to take your money at any point in time, I have never seen
any evidence of mass-scale collusion or fraud of the kind imagined
by those who blame their failures on the market, their brokers, or
other participants.
The bottom line is that you make the trades and you are responsi-
ble for the outcome. Don’t blame anyone else for giving you bad
advice or withholding secrets from you. If you screw up and do some-
thing stupid, learn from that mistake, don’t pretend you didn’t make
it. Then go figure out a way to avoid making that same mistake in
the future.
Blaming others for your mistakes is a sure way to lose.