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- Example 6: Economics
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Background and objectives, Methods and approach, Results, Conclusions and broader implications Example 5: Astronomy The search for a habitable extrasolar planet has long interested scientists, but only recently have the tools become available to search for such planets. In the past decades, the number of known extrasolar planets has ballooned into the hundreds, and with it, the expectation that the discovery of the first Earth-like extrasolar planet is not far off. Here, we develop a novel metric of habitability for discovered planets and use this to arrive at a prediction for when the first habitable planet will be discovered. Using a bootstrap analysis of currently discovered exoplanets, we predict the discovery of the first Earth-like planet to be announced in the first half of 2011, with the likeliest date being early May 2011. Our predictions, using only the properties of previously discovered exoplanets, accord well with external estimates for the discovery of the first potentially habitable extrasolar planet and highlight the the usefulness of predictive scientometric techniques to understand the pace of scientific discovery in many fields. Example 6: Economics This paper contributes to better understand the dynamic interactions between effective exchange rate (EER) and oil price for an oil-importing country like the U.S. by considering a Time-Varying Parameter VAR model with the use of monthly data from 1974:01 to 2019:07. Our findings show a depreciation after an oil price shock in the short-run for any period of time, although the pattern of long-run responses of U.S. EER is diverse across time periods, with an appreciation being observed before the mid-2000s and after the mid-2010s, and a depreciation between both periods. This diversity of response should lead policy makers to react differently in order to counteract such shocks. Furthermore, the reaction of oil price to an appreciation of U.S. EER is negative and different over time, which may generate different adverse effects on investment. The knowledge of such effects may help financial investors to diversify their investments in order to optimize the risk-return profile of their portfolios. Download 119.52 Kb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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