Initial coa brief mpat te-5 purpose purpose

Initial COA Brief MPAT TE-5

PURPOSE

• Purpose:

• Brief Commander on Rough Courses of Action being developed

• Obtain approval / guidance for further planning of those COAs

• Obtain initial Wargaming guidance

AGENDA

• Updated Facts/Assumptions C3

• Review HHQ Msn and Intent C3

• Review CTF Msn and Intent C3

• COA 1 Overview CPG 1 Lead

• COA 2 Overview CPG 2 Lead

• COA 3 Overview CPG 3 Lead

• COA 4 Overview CPG 4 Lead

• Request CCTF COA Development Guidance CCTF

• Request CCTF Wargame Guidance CCTF

CTF OPERATIONAL AREA

UPDATED FACTS

• Rogue elements not abiding to agreements

• Lead Nation is Mongolia

• Epidemics in several Displaced Civilians (DC) camps

• 14 total DC camps (10 in Ayland and 4 in Beland) - 125,000 (34,000 refugees)

• Humanitarian Coordinator “leading” humanitarian effort from the Humanitarian Operations Center (HOC) including setting relief priorities

• Donor pallets: 3,300 pallets (C-130)

UPDATED FACTS

• Epidemics (pulmonary and bronchial infections, Hep A and B, trachoma, SARS, and brucellosis) in several DC camps

• Bubonic plague transmitted via marmots in AUG-OCT

• Preparations for harsh winters in DC camps is inadequate

• USMC/USN assets available thru C+30

• PACOM Contingency Communications Package (CCP) is available for duration of CTF mission

• Rapid deployment of CTF forces NLT 15 1200 NOV 2003

• Operational Control/Tactical Control (OPCON/TACON) of forces is in accordance with MOUs between participating nations

UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS

• Due to extreme summer draught, there is very high probability of a “Dzud” starting in October

• Terrorists (TPFDL) will attempt to disrupt MNF & UN / IO / NGO efforts

• Ayland and Beland continue to abide by Agreement

• Beland and Ayland will provide law & order in Non-occupied zone (less camps)

• Primary APOD can support air operations

• Surface to air threat

• TPFDL is well armed and organized, and receives support from significant elements of the population within the disputed area

UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS

• Ayland/Beland Support as Host Nation extremely limited

• Permissions for overland transit granted by Russia/China

• IO/NGO will distribute HA to DC camps

• Strategic lift available and may move IO/NGO HA material

• APODs/SPODs/SLOC will remain open

• SPOD/APOD: Vlad (Rus)/ULN (Mon), Choybalsan (Ay), Sainshand NE (Be)

• APODs will not have sufficient POL and de-icing equipment

• Certified Airlift/Airdrop will be required and possible

HHQ MSN AND INTENT REVIEW

• GENERAL STAFF ARMED FORCES MONGOLIA (GSAFM) ASSUMES LEAD NATION RESPONSIBILITIES IN ESTABLISHING A COALITION TASK FORCE FOR THE PURPOSE OF CONDUCTING PEACE OPERATIONS IN THE DESIGNATED AREA OF OPERATIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ULAANBAATAR AGREEMENT AND UNSC RESOLUTION 1527 IN ORDER TO RESTORE PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE REGION.

CTF RESTATED MISSION

FOUR COAS

• COA 1: Geographical Zones

• LTC Imam Mulyono

• COA 2: Components by Service

• Col Udaya

• COA 3: HA/DR Primacy

• Capt Rick Regan

• COA 4: Sectoral

• Lt Col Simon Hutchinson

CPG-1 Guidance

• Under a CTF HQ:

• Main Effort: Security & HA/DR in zone
• Establish TF-A (in Ayland) & TF-B (in Beland)
• Examine organizing subordinate TF components by either function or mission; recommend procedures for coordination of air assets
• Supporting Effort: Establish TF-CT (MAF)
• Mission: CT in AO

COA 1 STATEMENT

• NLT 15 November, CTF Khokh Chono will rapidly deploy, secure the borders and maintain the Buffer-zone, Facilitate HA/DR and transition operations in the combined area of operations by utilizing parallel CTF organizations in order to facilitate peace and stability in Ayland and Beland.

COA 1 C2 STRUCTURE

COA 1, PHASE 1: PRE-DEPLOY/ DEPLOY/LODGEMENT (C+0 to C+15)

COA 1, PHASE 2: SECURE AO/ESTABLISH BUFFER ZONE (C+15 to C+30)

COA 1, PHASE 3: Conduct HA/DR (C+30 to C+XX)

COA 1, PH 4: TRANSITION (C+XX to C+XX)

COA 1, PHASE 5: REDEPLOY (C+XX to C+XX)

COA 1 RISKS

• Potential fratricide between TF A, TF B, and TF CT unless clear coordination lines established.

• Lack of coordination between TF A and TF B could lead to Buffer Zone cross border incidents.

• Multiple HA/DR organizations within CTF could lead to duplication of effort.

• Decentralize organization could lead to National Command Element (NCE) issues (i.e.; National C2)

CPG-2 Guidance

• Under a CTF HQ:

• Organize CTF components by service (i.e., CARFOR, CAFFOR, CMARFOR, etc.)
• Main effort: BZ maintenance, CT campaign & security
• Supporting effort: HA / DR, CMO

COA 2 STATEMENT

• No later than 15 November, CTF KHOKH CHONO will secure the borders and maintain buffer zone, set the conditions (peace & security) to facilitate HA/DR conditions in Ayland & Beland.

• The CTF will be prepared for CW, organised by component structure and will secure the initial lodgement with army forces, allowing the follow-on air/land forces to deploy into the AO and begin securing the borders/establish the BZ, which will set the conditions to facilitate distribution of HA/DR.

• On order, execute mission handoff to appropriate authorities and redeploy forces.

COA 2 C2 STRUCTURE

COA 2 PHASE 1: PREPARATION /DEPLOYMENT (D-10 to D +10)

COA 2 PHASE 2: ESTABLISH LODGEMENT (D-7 to D +10)

COA 2 PHASE 3: ENFORCEMENT MANDATE (D DAY to D + 90)

COA 2 PHASE 4: TRANSITION (D+80 to D +170)

COA 2 PHASE 5: REDEPLOY (D+150 to D +180)

COA 2 RISK

CPG-3 Guidance

• CTF is established as a Coalition Civil Military Operations Task Force (CCMOTF)

• Main effort: Civil-military Operations
• Supporting effort: security
• Organization: IAW MNF SOP, Chapter C-7, Figure C-7-A-1, CCMOTF Organizational Model

COA 3 - CMOTF C2 STRUCTURE

COA 3, PHASE 1: PRE-DEPLOYMENT (now to C+0)

COA 3, PHASE 2: LODGEMENT (C+0 to C+21)

COA 3, PHASE 3: DECISIVE OPERATIONS (C+21 to on order)

COA 3, PH 4: TRANSITION (on order)

COA 3, PHASE 5: REDEPLOY (C+180 to as required)

COA 3 RISKS

• BZ regime not enforced till Phase 3

• Risk: Resumption of hostilities
• Mitigation: IO campaign, SOF, QRF, FID

• HA/DR limited to emergency response till Phase 3

• Risk: Deterioration of Humanitarian Situation
• Mitigation: Emergency response mission allocated to TF HA/DR

CPG-4 Guidance

COA 4, PHASE 1: Preparation and Lodgment

COA 4, PHASE 2: Expand Lodgment

COA 4, PHASE 3: Enforce the Mandate

COA 4, PH 4: Transition

COA 4, PHASE 5: Redeploy

COA 4 RISKS

• Confused liaison between Ayland / Beland and TFs

• Effects of Weather

• Early deterioration of humanitarian situation (ie disease)

• Collapse of Agreements/Cease fire violations

• Logistics due to long LOCs

• Terrorism

• Failure of CTF integration and unity of effort

• Endstate not met by end of mandate

• Communications (interoperability and terrain)

• Loss of perception of CTF impartiality

CTF COMMANDER’S GUIDANCE

CCTF GUIDANCE

• CCTF approves all COAs for further development

• Ensure COAs plan for extreme cold weather operations IAW Commander’s COA Development Guidance

• Wargaming must not assume away any threat capabilities & must also consider environmental effects on COAs

• Consider the following factors as important for developing COAs:

• Mobility, Security, Coordination & Synchronization between TF units & IOs / NGOs / UN / Ayland, Beland, Mongolian national & local authorities