Population 34. 5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups; Population 34. 5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups

 Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups;

•  Population 34.5m, comprising more than 40 ethnic groups;

• Kikuyu largest but not majority (22%), traditionally dominant, converted to Christianity, western education, partners with British colonial rule;

• Mau Mau, strong role in governing, left Kikuyu as dominant group at independence

OUTLINE OF EVENTS:

• OUTLINE OF EVENTS:

• 1990: multiparty riots, donor demands for liberalization;

• 1992, 1997: election violence;

• 2002: Kibaki wins presidency, with Odinga’s support; some election violence;

• December 2007: election, Raila Odinga was leading by 1.2 mil votes when Mwai Kibaki’s reelection victory was announced;

• (Opposition 99 seats in Parliament, President’s party 43 seats)

• Tampering immediately denounced by international observers;

• Immediately, rioting begins across the nation; Luo in west, Kalenjin in central highlands; Kikuyu response violent, with little control by police, army;

• ~1,300 dead, 600,000 displaced. ~ethnic cleansing?

Regional Authorities, Moral Authority & Respected Leaders:

• Regional Authorities, Moral Authority & Respected Leaders:

• Pressure from Desmond Tutu, other African leaders, including Tanzania leaders;

• AU requested mediation by Kofi Annan

• Team: Annan, Benjamin Mkapa (Tanz), Graca Machel (Mozambique & S.Africa)

• Support for settlement from donors & allies

Post of Prime Minister with real powers created;

• Post of Prime Minister with real powers created;

• Two deputy PMs, one from each party, protected from arbitrary dismissal;

• Results? Violence ended; systematic changes have not been made, Odinga’s supporters few gains,

• tensions remain

Memories of Rwanda and Bosnia clear to Annan;

• Memories of Rwanda and Bosnia clear to Annan;

• Destruction & disintegration in Region (Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan) created a sense of Urgency;

• R2P an implicit, not explicit issue

A recently developed concept in IR which attempts to enforce a State’s responsibilities toward its own population, and to codify the circumstances which justify humanitarian intervention

• A recently developed concept in IR which attempts to enforce a State’s responsibilities toward its own population, and to codify the circumstances which justify humanitarian intervention

• Includes violence, especially war crimes, genocide, ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity

State Sovereignty

• State Sovereignty

• UN Charter: “Domestic Jurisdiction”

• Eroding distinction between International and Domestic issues

• Failure of most attempts to “internationalize” domestic policy

• Obstacles to “peace keeping” and humanitarian intervention

Institutional Obstacles

• Institutional Obstacles

• Neutrality of IGO
• suspicion of interveners’ motives
• “Will” of members
• Cost, in money and political capital

Pragmatic Obstacles

• Pragmatic Obstacles

• Uncertainty re: actual situation
• Local assistance
• Numbers of refugees, incidence of disease or famine
• Resources:
• remote areas & supply lines
• language
• skilled workers