4 labaratoriya Iqtisodiyot modellarida vaqt qatorlari va ularning ahamiyati


Trend modeli (chiziqli va parabolikmodellar tahlili)


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4 labaratoriya Iqtisodiyot modellarida vaqt qatorlari va ularnin

Trend modeli (chiziqli va parabolikmodellar tahlili)
Chiziqli trend modelini ko‘rib chiqamiz:
Trend Analysis for Mashinalar soni
Trend Analysis for Y

Data Y
Length 20


NMissing 0
Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 474,7 + 15,06?t


Accuracy Measures

MAPE 3,501


MAD 21,650
MSD 626,703
Forecasts

Period Forecast


21 791,012
22 806,073
23 821,135
24 836,196
Trend tenglamasi:
Yt (mashinalar soni) = 474,7+15,06t
Xatoliklari:

MAPE

47,322

MAD

23,002

MSD

649,976

Grafigi:




Davr(hafta)

Bashorat

21

791,012

22

806,073

23

821,135

24

836,196

Endi parabolik trend modelini ko‘ramiz:


Trend Analysis

Data Y
Length 20


NMissing 0
Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 497,4 + 8,86?t + 0,295?t^2


Accuracy Measures

MAPE 3,148


MAD 19,620
MSD 550,225
Forecasts

Period Forecast


21 813,740
22 835,295
23 857,440
24 880,176
Trend modeli tenglamasi:
Yt (mashinalar soni) = 497,4 + 8,86t +0,295t2
Xatoliklari:

MAPE

19,793

MAD

15,654

MSE

389,058

Grafigi:


Davr(hafta)__Bashorat__21__813,740'>Davr(hafta)

Bashorat

21

813,740

22

835,295

23

857,440

24

880,176

Demak, parabolik modelimiz yordamida bashorat qilgan keyingi haftalardagi mashina savdosi miqdori chiziqli trend modelida qilingan bashoratimizga nisbatan aniqroq chiqar ekan,
Endi eksponensial trend modelini ko‘ramiz:
Trend Analysis for Y

Data Y
Length 20


NMissing 0
Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 487,987 ? (1,02408^t)


Accuracy Measures

MAPE 3,187


MAD 19,804
MSD 562,959
Forecasts

Period Forecast


21 804,258
22 823,623
23 843,453
24 863,762


Trend Analysis Plot for Y

Trend modeli tenglamasi:


Yt (O’z…,) = 487,987*(1,02408*t)
Xatoliklari:

MAPE

49,53

MAD

41,78

MSE

2164,11

Grafigi:



Davr(hafta)

Bashorat

21

804,258

22

823,623

23

843,453

24

863,762

Modellarni xatoliklar bo‘yicha solishtiramiz:

Model turi

MSD

chiziqli

649,976

parabolik

389,058

eksponensial o‘sish

2164,11

Parabolik model mavjud ma’lumotlarni eng aniq tasvirlaydi, chunki bu modelning standart og‘ishi (MSD) eng kichikdir, Ushbu vaqt qatorini tavsiflovchi trend tenglamasi:
Yt (O’z…,) =487,987*(1,02408*t)
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