Degree of Master of

Change of the regional climate

Change of the regional climate has been proposed by the author as the second criterion for the elaboration of the AALS water management scenarios. This criterion has been selected because the change of the regional climate as one of the current problems for Central Asia as well as for Uzbekistan represents serious threats for the environment, ecological, and socio- economic systems. During the last decades it has been observed that the quantity and quality of water resources are at high risk of acute effects of climate change (Perelet 2008).
Climate change issues are closely connected with issues of water resources in Uzbekistan. Change of the regional climate in future will give rise to considerable variations of the whole Aydar-Arnasay system, including environmental and socio-economic. Such problems as alteration of the hydrological cycle, unstable water-level of the lakes, the problem of high mineralization, fisheries deterioration and others could aggravate the future functioning of this vulnerable lakes system.
Many experts believe that the climate in Uzbekistan will considerably warm up causing major environmental, economic and social disturbances. Besides, climate change will affect the maintenance of biodiversity in terms of protection of Aydar-Arnasay wetlands designated as a Ramsar site and all endangered species living there (Perelet 2008).
Therefore, in our viewpoint the change of the regional climate could be an appropriate criterion for the elaboration of the water management scenarios. Under the change of regional climate, in the present research change of the average annual temperature will be considered. Quantitative description of this criterion will be given in the model simulation section.

2. Development of the scenario conceptual scheme based on elaborated

CEU eTD Collection
criteria
As described in the previous section, two determinate criteria for the water management scenarios have been elaborated and proposed by the author. They are:

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