Degree of Master of

Quantitative assumptions

In the previous section we considered some basic assumptions for the model. Based on the results of the model simulation in the Mode I we deem it wise to add a few important quantitative assumptions:

• 
  In case of a substantial regional climate change, annual average temperature will be about 16,8 ºC during 2010-2040;
  
• 
  In case of negligible climatic changes, annual average temperature will not change; the model assumes that it will be around 14,8 ºC during 2010-2040;
  
• 
  A high level of cooperation in the Scenario I “Ready for challenge” assumes two alternative management strategies in terms of water discharges to the Aydar-Arnasay lakes:
  

1. 
   full cooperation is estimated as 2,56 km³ of water discharges which will be given to Uzbekistan for the AALS maintenance in case of substantial climatic changes;
   
2. 
   consulting interests means that 2,56 km³ of water discharges will be shared between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. For this, the model suggests introducing cooperation ratio and examining what will happen with the Aydar-Arnasay lakes in the context of prevailing water discharges either for Uzbekistan or Kazakhstan and if water discharges will be divided equally;
   

• 
  A high level of cooperation in the Scenario III “Promising Future” assumes that 2,11 km³ water discharges will be given to the AALS;
  
• 
  A low level of cooperation implies the absence of water discharges to the Aydar- Arnasay lakes and their release to the South Kazakhstan downstream areas;
  
• 
  
  CEU eTD Collection
  In case of substantial climate changes, drought frequency, i.e. ratio between dry and wet years will increase; the model allows setting of the variable ratio.
  

Based on these assumptions, a quantitative description of the water management scenarios has been elaborated (Figure 34).

Figure 34. Quantitative description of the water management scenarios (Notes: WD – water discharges, km³; T – annual average temperature, ºC)

3.