Degree of Master of

Scenario II “Fall Behind”

The results of the model simulation for the following scenario are presented in Figure
37.

Figure 37. The AALS volume change in Scenario II “Fall Behind”

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From the graph it can be observed that model simulation for Scenario II indicates the sharp shrinking of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes in future which can be explained by absence of the water discharges to the AALS and severe climatic changes. In particular, the AALS volume will range from 19,3 to 23,09 km³ in 2020 and from 3,4 to 6,7 km³ in 2030. By 2032- 2034 the Aydar-Arnasay system will dry out entirely.
In the course of the model simulation it has been found that drought frequency will not influence significantly the volume change. The volume will reduce equally in case of drought frequency amounting to eight dry years a decade or nine dry years a decade.

3. Scenario III “Promising Future”

Figure 38 illustrates the results obtained from the model simulation for Scenario III “Promising Future”.

Figure 38. The AALS volume change in Scenario III “Promising Future”

The experiments with Scenario III have identified a stable AALS volume over the next thirty years. This result is well justified by a high level of regional cooperation between countries and minor climatic changes in future.
It should be noted that the model is sensitive to fluctuations of the stochastic environmental parameters such as annual average temperature and precipitation. Therefore, a wide range of the volume values can be observed in the graph.
As it can be seen from the graph, the AALS volume will range from 41,7 to 45,1 km³ in 2020, 41,9 – 44,9 km³ in 2030, and 42,5 – 45,6 km³ in 2040. On average, the AALS volume will be around 43,4 – 44,5 km³ in 2010-2040 that corresponds to the current value.

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In general, the results obtained from the model simulation show that the Aydar-Arnasay lakes will get the necessary amount of the water discharges for maintenance. As it was found, the water discharges needed for the AALS maintenance at a temperature of 14,8ºC are supposed to total 2,11 km³.

4.