Degree of Master of

Reality. In our point of view, the present sub-scenario is slightly idealistic concerning a high level of regional cooperation. Analyzing the current relationships between Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, we should highlight the following features:

• 
  Current political situation in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan is very tense and stressful; it is unclear how the Toktogul Reservoir will function in future;
  
• 
  Prevailing self-interests and self-security is a high priority for the republics in question;
  
• 
  Nonperformance of obligations in terms of agreed and coordinated water discharges to the Aydar-Arnasay lakes is a common occurrence for the parties concerned;
  

Summing it all up, realistically we think that this scenario has low-probability mainly because of the impossibility to have such high cooperation between countries. In order to turn this scenario into reality, plenty of time will be needed for the countries to come closer in their cooperation. Anticipated climatic changes are highly probable according to numerous scientific forecasts; however, the present scenario excludes their impact on the lakes system.

Sub-scenario Ib.

Vision. This sub-scenario seems to be more plausible for the future development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes in comparison the previous one.

CEU eTD Collection
The main reason is that the republics will take into account mutual interests in water discharges in future. As was concluded in the model simulation section, various situations²⁸ of the AALS volume fluctuations are possible within this scenario. There is a high probability that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will share water coming from the upstream Syrdarya equally. In this situation, Aydar-Arnasay lakes will be in the equilibrium condition, i.e. the AALS volume will remain at the same level as the model simulation showed²⁹. Fish farming, tourism and recreation will gradually prosper and benefit the national economy. Conservation activity, in particular, protection of the AALS wetlands and their inhabitants will be effectively carried out.
On the other hand, there is a high likelihood that Kazakhstan will take more water for its own needs, i.e. assumed 70-80% of water discharges. Therefore, the remaining 20-30% will be given for the AALS maintenance. As the model simulation demonstrated it will not be enough for keeping the volume at the particular level. In case of releasing such an amount of

²⁸ See in section 6.3.3.1

²⁹ See results of the model simulation in section 6.3.3.1
water discharges, the volume and water level will slowly decrease, causing disturbance to the whole lakes system.
Reality. As we assumed above, taking into consideration their own interests rather than interests of neighbors is much more probable for the republics concerned. Thus we consider this sub-scenario more plausible over the next thirty years than the sub-scenario Ia.
Besides, we think that forecasting change of the regional climate will influence the ecological conditions of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes to a larger extent since the regional cooperation will not be at such a high level as in the sub-scenario Ia and will not compensate the climatic changes. Increase of the annual average temperature will be responsible for the increased evaporation and growth of mineralization. Growth of mineralization in turn will have negative impact on fisheries development altering the rate of fish reproduction and total fish yield.
Summarizing our viewpoint, sub-scenario Ib focusing on consulting interests is more realistic in terms of the future the AALS. A level of regional cooperation will definitely indicate willingness of the republics for future challenges.