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Scenario II “Fall Behind”

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Vision. The following scenario assumes a completely different future for the Aydar- Arnasay lakes. The countries will take into consideration only their own interests disregarding the neighbors’ needs. There will be no regional cooperation at all. For instance, Kazakhstan will block the water access from the Chardara reservoir for the AALS by closing the dam located near the border with Uzbekistan. The water surpluses will be accumulated in the new launched Koksaray dam located in the downstream Syrdarya instead of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes (map).
Hence, the Aydar-Arnasay lakes will lose the sole feed source and start to dry out. As the results of the model simulation demonstrated³⁰, the AALS volume will be gradually decreasing and by 2032-2034 the whole system will disappear. Disappearance of such an important human-made lakes system will disrupt the other systems related with the lakes, i.e. fisheries will be completely ruined and Uzbekistan will lose a significant item of national

³⁰ See in section 6.3.3.2

income; wetlands situated around the AALS³¹ will be entirely destroyed and their dwellers will have to find a new suitable habitat; recreational activity and tourism will cease to exist.
Along with that, the change of the regional climate will considerably impact on the AALS hydrological features, i.e. increase of the annual average temperature will trigger the increase of evaporation from the AALS water surface and growth of mineralization. Similar to sub-scenario Ib within Scenario “Ready for Challenge”, future climatic changes will probably one of the determinant factors of the AALS disturbance.
Reality. We deem this scenario one of the most plausible and realistic for the future development. The main reason of our assumptions is based on a high probability of low regional cooperation between countries nowadays. The main features of the contemporary relationships between republics were considered above.
We think that accumulation of the Chardara water in the Koksaray dam will be one of the top future priorities because it will make Kazakhstan more secure in terms of water resources for irrigation purposes. Besides, accumulation of the Chardara water will not result in flooding of the South Kazakhstan areas. In this case, the Aydar-Arnasay lakes will disappear and functioning of other related systems will be disrupted.
On the other hand, we assume that Kyrgyzstan will probably continue operating the Toktogul reservoir in the power-focused regime that will bring about a huge amount of water discharges during the winter time and flooding of the downstream countries. It will entirely concentrate on its own interests and neglect the interests of its neighbors.

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The presumed change of the regional climate will not be the definite factor of the scenario development, but at the same time, its influence of the lakes system could not be excluded from this scenario.