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Scenario I “Ready for challenge”

As it was found above, the present scenario contains the two alternative management strategies in terms of the water discharges to the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system (AALS). Let us start the discussion about the AALS future development according to the sub-scenario Ia assuming full cooperation between republics²⁵.

Scenario Ia.

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Vision. A high level of cooperation between republics, i.e. between Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will promote the balanced development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes followed by the gradual increase of the AALS volume in 2010-2040. Furthermore, Kazakhstan will completely consider Uzbek’ interests in terms of providing the necessary amount of Chardara water²⁶ for maintaining the lakes. For its own needs, mainly for irrigation purposes, Kazakhstan will use the water surpluses from the Chardara reservoir.
Kyrgyzstan, in turn, will take into consideration the downstream interests by regulating the Toktogul Reservoir operation. Close regional cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan will probably give rise to renewal of the barter relationships with regard to gas provision of Kyrgyzstan for energy purposes. Consequently, Kyrgyzstan will diminish using

²⁵ See scenario analysis model block in section 6.2.1.4

²⁶ See results in section 6.3.1
the Toktogul Reservoir in the power-focused regime that will bring about the decrease of the water released during the winter time. Besides, Uzbekistan will stop suffering from unexpected and severe flooding during the winter time. Thus, it will make maintaining the AALS, including fisheries development, recreational activity and biodiversity conservation, more coordinated and efficient.
It should be pointed out that assumed severe climatic changes in the scenario concerned will have no negative consequences for the environmental characteristics of the Aydar- Arnasay lakes. Probable increase of the annual average temperature over the next thirty years will have an adverse effect neither on change of the AALS water level nor on volume. On the contrary, a high level of the regional cooperation, which is the driving force in this scenario, will compensate the substantial climatic changes and result in the increase of the AALS volume²⁷ .
However, in our opinion, it is quite unclear how the growth of the AALS volume will impact on fisheries development, maintenance of biodiversity, in particular, wetlands designated as a Ramsar site and endangered bird species living there and recreational activity. According to the results achieved from the model simulation, the volume will increase by 4-6 m during 2010-2040. It is quite possible that the volume’s increase will cause a negative development of the future situation for the aspects mentioned above.

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The first probable downside of this is that fisheries situated along the lakes could be flooded and fish production benefiting the republic’s economy will be impeded. The second probable downside relates to the unknown future of the Aydar-Arnasay wetlands and their wildlife inhabitants. In order to evaluate how the AALS volume change will influence the wetland conditions, the detailed research using modern GIS techniques and modeling are highly recommended. Therefore, considering this scenario we may assume quite undetermined state of the AALS wetlands. The last uncertain issue focuses on the future development of recreation and tourism on these lakes in case of the volume increase. On the one hand, future change of the AALS hydrological conditions will be probably considered in the construction of recreational facilities. On the other hand, existing recreational facilities situated along the lakes’ shoreline could be vulnerable to volume increase.

²⁷ See graph in section 6.3.3.1