Degree of Master of

Reality. Based on the detailed review and analysis of the contemporary AALS conditions³⁶, we consider this scenario is highly probable in future. There are two main reasons why we believe in that.
The first reason is related to the issue of water self-sufficiency from the Kazakh side.
Meeting of their own needs will be top priority for Kazakhstan.
The second reason is that a low cooperation between Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan will not give rise to the renewal of the barter relationships. Consequently, the Toktogul operation in the power-focused regime will be kept.
The political tensions and disagreements between these three countries, which are currently specific features of the Central Asian region, will probably hinder interaction between republics in terms of implementation of the coordinated water policy, and especially, distribution of the water discharges even more.
Summarizing, we deem this scenario quite plausible due to the three reasons explained above. This scenario stands a big chance of being illustrative for the future Aydar-Arnasay lakes development.
The author has drawn the following conclusions:

• 
  Scenario “Ready for challenge” has two alternative water management sub-scenarios that focus on:
  

1. 
   full cooperation strategy which is quite idealistic for the AALS future development;
   
2. 
   consulting interests which is more probable for the AALS future development;
   

• 
  The “Fall behind” scenario is one of most plausible and realistic for the future development because of a high probability of low regional cooperation between countries in future;
  
• 
  
  CEU eTD Collection
  The “Promising Future” scenario is the most idealized for the AALS future development and could not be put into life because of the impossibility to achieve such high regional cooperation;
  
• 
  The “Business as Usual” scenario has a high probability to be realistic in AALS future.
  

³⁶ See chapter 5

8.