Degree of Master of

Input parameters

The present model contains two types of input parameters:

• 
  
  CEU eTD Collection
  Environmental factors such as annual average temperature, evaporation, precipitation and percolation;
  
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  Control parameters such as water discharges to the AALS, downstream water releases, and cooperation ratio which can be regulated depending of the scenario selected.
  

4. Main blocks

The Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay model has three main blocks:

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  The Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay lakes system;
  
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  Environmental factors;
  
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  Scenario analysis, including Chardara downstream discharges. The description and illustration of each block is presented below.
  

The Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay lakes system

Figure 26 demonstrates the first block of the model, called the Chardara – Aydar- Arnasay lakes system. This block represents the main input and output parameters of the Aydar-Arnasay system and their correlation.
Concerning the main input parameters, the present model considers the following:

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  water discharges from the Chardara reservoir; the average inflow to AALS during 1993-2008 made up 2,56 km³ or 67% of the total inflow of AALS; considering inflow during the cultivation period (April to September) it can be outlined that the inflow occurred only during water abundant years, i.e. 1993-1994, 1998 and 2002-2005; in the period of 2007-2009 water discharges were 2,20 km³ on average;
  
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  inflow from drainage network; the drainage network gathers collector-drainage water from the irrigated areas of Golodnaya Steppe; in the period of 1993-2008 inflow from drainage network ranged from 0,63 to 1,4 km³ year. On average, the collector-drainage inflow made up 0,88 km³ or 21% from the total inflow of AALS and therefore, this is a indication of an important role of collector-drainage water in the AALS water balance; it was calculated that during 1993-2006 about 12,09 km³ of collector- drainage water from the Golodnaya Steppe was discharged to the AALS;
  
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  inflow from the rainfall; their contribution to the AALS is about 0,2-0,7 km³/ year; in average, the annual inflow is about 0,47 km³/ year of 12% of he total inflow of the AALS (Wahyuni, Oishi et al. 2009).
  

CEU eTD Collection
The Aydar-Arnasay lakes lose its water mainly due to:

1. 
   outflow from evaporation; evaporation plays major losses in the AALS as typical losses in arid regions; the annual evaporation rate is 2,7-2,9 km³; the highest portion of the evaporation losses is estimated in May to September, i.e. 84% of the annual rate (Wahyuni, Oishi et al. 2009);
   
2. 
   percolation²¹; the annual outflow is about 0,5 km³ (Kurbanov and Primov 2006).
   

²¹ Percolation - a hydrologic process where water moves downward from surface water to groundwater (Allison, G., G. Gee, et al. 1994)

Inflow from the Syrdarya River, being the main feed source of the Chardara reservoir is calculated as average inflow (5 km³) + annual fluctuations. Annual fluctuations range from -1 to 1(Wahyuni, Oishi et al. 2009).
In order to simulate the Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay system in a more realistic way, downstream discharges to South Kazakhstan were taken into account. Besides, this block embraces the downstream discharge strategy which is used in the second mode, i.e. analysis of the water management.
Figure 26. The model block “Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay lakes system”