Degree of Master of

GEO-3 scenarios as an example of successful scenario building

CEU eTD Collection
Based on the examination of the literature devoted to the scenario approach, for the development of our own water management scenarios for the AALS future, it has been decided to use the concept of the UNEP scenarios developed for the Global Environmental Outlook (GEO) as a good example for scenario building. GEO-3 scenarios have been focused on the framework of Global Scenario Group (GSG) and then applied to six UNEP regions and 21 UNEP subregions (UNEP 2002). The main idea of GEO scenarios is that they are based on the two following criteria:

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   Globalization/regionalization;
   
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   Economy/ Environment (Figure 21);
   

According to these criteria, there are four main types of GEO scenarios, namely:
The Market Forces (or Market First) scenario envisages a world in which market- driven developments coverage on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries;

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  The Policy Reform (or Policy First) scenario considers a world where strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social and environmental goals;
  
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  The Security First (or Fortress World) scenario assumes a world of great disparities, where inequality and conflict prevail, brought about socio-economic and environmental stresses;
  
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  The Great Transition (or Sustainability First) scenario pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new, more equitable values and institutions (UNEP 2002).
  

Figure 21. Conceptual scheme of GEO-scenarios

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In our opinion, the concept of GEO scenarios seems to be coherent and suitable for scenario creation. There are a large number of positive moments of the GEO concept. Some of them are:

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  GEO scenarios take into consideration a large variety of driving forces, i.e. demographics, economics, environment, geopolitical, social, cultural aspects, and technological changes.
  
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  GEO scenarios can be readily visualized by a simple conceptual scheme which makes them more comprehensive and easily available for stakeholders and decision makers (Figure 21);
  
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  GEO scenarios represent a successful combination of qualitative and quantitative scenarios. “Qualitative narratives take a central position with the quantitative tools playing a supporting role” (UNEP/RIVM 2003). From the qualitative perspective, GEO scenarios explore relationships, trends, situations for which few or no numerical data are available. They can more readily incorporate human motivations, insights, values and behavior and explain alternative ways of development by creation holistic qualitative picture. From the quantitative perspective, GEO scenarios provide greater consistency and precision. Their assumptions are explicit and their conclusion can be traced back to the assumptions. They can provide estimates of past, present and future trends, for instance, population growth or resource use (UNEP 2002).
  

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