Degree of Master of

Elaboration of the water management scenarios

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To begin with, we should briefly explain the reason of developing water management scenarios in the present research. The prime reason of our choice is the fact that we are dealing with a complicated human-induced lakes system whose development directly depends on management decision making and political cooperation. It is known that the water policy of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan undoubtedly predetermines the Aydar-Arnasay development ways. In the present work, the water management scenarios will reflect different water discharges strategies which will be used for depiction of alternative ways of the lakes development. Moreover, these ways can be either suitable or unacceptable for the decision making process.
Having considered the concept of the GEO scenario, it has been decided to develop a similar concept for our scenario building. However, in order to make water management scenarios more realistic and feasible, completely different criteria have been established.
The procedure of the elaboration of the water management scenarios consists of the following steps:

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  Establishment of the main criteria which are the unchanged basis for the AALS water management scenarios;
  
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  Creation of the conceptual scheme backbone demonstrating of the arrangement of these elaborated criteria;
  
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  Detailed description of each AALS water management scenario, including its main concept and assumptions;
  
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  Spatial arrangement of the scenarios according to the elaborated criteria on the conceptual scheme;
  

1. Development of the criteria for the water management scenarios

To begin with, let us describe how the main criteria for the water management scenarios have been selected. The main steps of criteria selection are:

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  A huge amount of literature devoted to driving forces of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes development has been analyzed;
  
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  In order to define which factors are the most important for the AALS development the literature analysis of the driving forces such as population, economics, environment, technologies, political and social aspects has been conducted;
  
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  Particular attention has been paid to the contemporary geopolitical situation in Central Asia, i.e. a large amount of journal articles and newspapers concerning political relationships has been reviewed;
  
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  Particular attention has been also paid to the analysis of existing environmental problems in Central Asia, e.g. lack of water resources, change of the regional climate, poor water quality;
  

CEU eTD Collection
As the result, two main criteria for the water management scenarios have been chosen:

1. 
   regional cooperation between republics;
   
2. 
   change of the regional climate.