Degree of Master of

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Environmental factors

The second block of the model is focused on consideration of the important environmental parameters of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes, i.e. temperature, evaporation and precipitation. Figure 27 shows the model block simulating the respective environmental parameters.
It should be mentioned that this block is used for two regimes, model optimization and scenario analysis. In case of Mode I, model optimization, this block is used for temperature simulation in order to find out how much discharged water will be needed in future for the
AALS maintenance in the context of climate change. Temperature simulation incorporates two parameters, data about historical temperature and annual increase of temperature.
Also this block takes into consideration drought frequency which means the number of dry years a decade. By default it is assumed that nowadays the ratio between dry and wet years is 7 to 3. The model also assumes that due to future climatic changes this ratio will change. In case of Mode II, scenario analysis, this block is responsible for temperature simulation according to the climate change conditions considered in the water management scenarios.
Figure 27. The model block “Environmental factors”

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Scenario analysis

The third block of the model consists of two subblocks, the Chardara downstream discharges and analysis of the scenario regarding water discharge strategy.
Figure 28 shows simulation of the water discharges according to the water management scenario selection. The left subblock demonstrated in Figure 28 mainly focused on downstream discharge strategy. As it was explained in the section about description of the AALS water management scenarios, downstream discharges play an important role in two elaborated water management scenarios. Downstream discharge strategy contains two management options:

• 
  in case of high regional cooperation:
  

1. 
   full cooperation between republics; it means that the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system takes the needed amount of the water discharges for the Chardara reservoir; the remaining amount of the Chardara water is released downstream ( sub-scenario Ia);
   
2. 
   consulting interests; in this case water discharges from the Chardara are shared between the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and downstream areas of South Kazakhstan (sub- scenario Ib);
   

• 
  in case of low level of regional cooperation all water from the Chardara reservoir is released to downstream areas; the AALS has no water discharges at all.
  

The right subblock shown in Figure 28 represents simulation of the four water management scenarios considered. Simulation of Scenario 1“Ready for Challenge” is set by default.
Figure 28. The model block “Scenario analysis”

5. 
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   Chardara - AALS model interface

The Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay lakes model interface consists of:

• 
  Main menu including the following control buttons: the AALS background, main goal and objectives of modeling, model description, scenario description, experiment and results interpretation and some illustrations (Figure 29);
  
• 
  Model structure;
  
• 
  Model modes including control panels with management options (Figure 30);
  
• 
  Output tools (graphs, tables, etc.).
  

Figure 29. Fragment of the model interface presenting main menu






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Figure 30. Fragment of the model interface presenting model modes including control parameters with management options

3.