Degree of Master of

Regional cooperation which will be expressed by water discharges in the AALS model;

Change of the regional climate which will be demonstrated by change of annual average temperature and evaporation.


Proceeding from the GEO scenario conceptual scheme¹⁸, a similar conceptual scheme for the water management scenarios has been devised. Figure 22 demonstrates the backbone of the conceptual scheme based on two criteria concerned.

Figure 22. Backbone of the water management scenarios conceptual scheme

Analyzing Figure 22 four alternative scenarios can be identified, namely:

• 
  The first scenario is based on high level of regional cooperation between republics concerning the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and substantial change of the regional climate;
  
• 
  The second scenario is based on low level of regional cooperation between republics concerning the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and still substantial change of the regional climate;
  
• 
  
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  The third scenario is based on high level of regional cooperation between republics concerning the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and negligible change of the regional climate or even absence of any climatic changes;
  
• 
  The fourth scenario is based on low level of regional cooperation between republics concerning the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and negligible change of the regional climate or even absence of any climatic changes;
  

The next section will introduce the name of the scenarios concerned and describe their concept and main assumptions.

¹⁸ See Figure 21 as an example

4. The water management scenarios: description

The present section considers a full description of the water management scenarios elaborated for the testing by the STELLA software (Table 4) and demonstrates a conceptual scheme of these scenarios (Figure 23). Figure 23 presents the conceptual scheme filled with our scenarios, namely, Scenario I “Ready for Challenge”, Scenario II “Fall Behind”, Scenario III “Promising Future”, and Scenario IV “Business as Usual”.

Figure 23. Conceptual scheme of the elaborated water management scenarios

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Table 4. Description of the water management scenarios