Degree of Master of

Scenario	Regional cooperation	Climate Change
Assumptions
I. Ready for Challenge	High Level	Substantial Changes	Consulting interests: coordinated and comprehensive water policy between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in terms of water discharges to the AALS; Consulting interests: close cooperation between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in terms of coordinated the Toktogul reservoir operation; The AALS fate: stable development, i.e. stable water-level, sustained volume, maintenance of biodiversity, the fish farms, recreational activity; Climate Change influence: there is a high probability that regulated water discharges will compensate severe climatic

			change in future; General trends: balanced and gradual development of the AALS;
II. Fall Behind	Low Level	Substantial Changes	Kazakhstan policy: accumulation of the Chardara water surpluses in the new launched Koksaray dam; The AALS fate: losing of the main feed source (Chardara reservoir) and a progressive destruction of the system; Kyrgyzstan policy: use of the Toktogul Reservoir in the power-focused regime and releasing a huge amount of water during the non-growing season; Fate of the downstream countries (Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan): high probability of flooding during the winter time and lack of water during the summer time; Severe climate change impact: increase of temperature and evaporation followed by the increase of mineralization, probable shrinking of the AALS; General trends: aggravation of the AALS future situation due to lack of regional cooperation and severe climatic changes, i.e. situation in fisheries development, maintenance of biodiversity, and recreation; environmental and socio-economic functions of the AALS will be diminished;