H eidelberg I nstitute for I nternational
Uruguay - Argentina (Uruguay River)
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- USA - Mexico (border fence)
- Venezuela (opposition)
- Asia and Oceania
- Conflict Intensities in Asia and Oceania in 2010 compared to 2009
- Frequency of Conflict Items in 2010 in Asia and Oceania by Intensity Groups
- Overview: Conflicts in Asia and Oceania in 2010 Name of conflict 1 Conflict parties
- Name of conflict 1 Conflict parties
- Name of conflict
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Uruguay - Argentina (Uruguay River) Intensity: 1 Change:
END Start:
2006 Conflict parties: Uruguay vs. Argentina Conflict items: resources The conflict between Uruguay and Argentina over the construction of a paper mill on the Uruguay River was settled by an ICJ ruling on April 20. Both parties ac- cepted the judgment. The ICJ ruled that Uruguay had violated several articles of the River Uruguay Treaty of 1975 by failing to inform the River Uruguay Ex- ecutive Commission (CARU) of its intentions to build the mill. Nevertheless, the ICJ did not support Ar- gentina’s claim that the mill had polluted the river. On April 28, Argentina’s President Cristina Fern ´andez de Kirchner and her Uruguayan counterpart Jos ´e Mu- jica reached an agreement to establish regulation for the oversight of the mill’s environmental impact on the Uruguay River. Although the Argentine environmen- tal assembly of Gualeguaych ´u decided to hold its reg- ular blockades of the San Mart´ın International Bridge in protest of the paper mill, President Fern ´andez de Kirchner announced that her government did not sup- port these actions and would bring them to an end. On November 14, both governments further specified the supervision of the environmental impact of the paper mill. (kcr)
USA - Mexico (border fence) Intensity: 2 Change:
Start: 2001
Conflict parties: USA vs. Mexico Conflict items: other
The conflict between the USA and Mexico over illegal im- migration and the construction of a border fence on US territory continued. Mexican President Felipe Calder ´on harshly criticized the US state Arizona’s the new immi- gration enforcement bill of April 23, and a regular bilat- eral meeting between the governors of Arizona and the Mexican state Sonora was canceled. The law required police officers to question suspects about their immigra- tion status. On July 28, a US federal judge issued a pre- liminary injunction against parts of the disputed immigra- tion law. On June 10, Mexican President Felipe Calder ´on demanded US investigations of the deaths of two Mexi- can citizens. One of them was shot dead by a US Border Patrol on June 6. The Mexican government also sent an official note expressing its concern over the incident. US Attorney General Eric Holder stated the border incident would not affect bilateral relations between the two coun- tries. The US deployed 2,500 additional border guards and launched drones in order to improve border security. (akn)
Venezuela (opposition) Intensity: 3 Change:
Start: 2000
Conflict parties: opposition vs. government Conflict items: system/ideology, national power The national power conflict between various opposition parties and the government continued. The opposition consisted of student organizations and a coalition of var- ious political parties, Table for Democratic Unity (MUD). On 12/08/09, detractors and supporters of the govern- ment clashed, leaving one oppositional student dead and at least ten others injured. The protesters criticized cuts in social spending, alleged mismanagement of pub- lic funding and deficits in electric infrastructure as well as other public services. On January 24, the govern- ment shut down six cable TV channels, including the pro-opposition Radio Caracas Televisi ´on Internacional, which had refused to broadcast President Hugo Ch ´avez’ weekly show. In response to the government’s mea- sures, pro- and anti-government groups clashed the fol- lowing day. Two protesters were killed. On September 26, legislative elections were held. President Ch ´avez’ ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela won 60 per- cent of the seats with nearly 47 percent of the popular vote, while the MUD achieved 45 percent of the votes, gaining 40 percent of the seats. (nms)
52 Conflict Barometer 2010 Asia and Oceania 2 3 4 5
1 With a total of 114 conflicts, the region of Asia and Oceania accounted for nearly a third of the world’s conflicts. Most conflicts concerned system/ideology, followed by regional predominance, national power, and secession. The most violent conflicts were fought over system/ideology and national power, while conflicts regarding territory and international power were comparatively peaceful. In 2010, one war was observed in the region, compared with three in the last year: In Pakistan, the most conflict-ridden country in Asia together with India, the war between the government and Islamist militants continued for the fourth year running [ → Pakistan (various Islamist militants)]. In addition, eight severe crises were fought out in Asia in 2010: The intrastate conflicts between Taliban and various tribes in FATA [ → Pakistan (Taliban - various tribes)], Sunni groups and religious minorities [ → Pakistan (TTP, LeJ, SSP – variuos religious groups)] as well as between Mohajir people on the one hand and Sindhis, Pakhtuns, and Baloch on the other [ → Pakistan (Mohajirs - Sindhis, Pakhtuns, Baloch)] were conducted with a massive amount of violence. In India, the extensive conflict between the government and the Naxalite movement [ → India (Naxalites)] continued unabatedly, while the conflict in Indian-administered Kashmir escalated from a crisis in 2009 to a severe crisis [India (JeM et al./Kashmir). Two further severe crises were observed in Southeast Asia [ → Myanmar (KNU, KNLA/Karen State, Kayah State); Thailand (Muslim separatists/southern border provinces)]. The conflict in Myanmar mentioned turned highly violent in the aftermath of the first general elections in more than 20 years. In Kyrgyzstan, the political situation worsened considerably. After President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was ousted [ → Kyrgyzstan (opposition)], the tensions between Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks became highly violent [ → Kyrgyzstan (Kyrgyz - Uzbeks)]. In addition, the relations between North and South Korea were on the brink of war when, after a series of aggravating events, North Korea shelled the island of Yeonpyeong on November 23. Conflict Intensities in Asia and Oceania in 2010 compared to 2009 2009
2010 33 33 42 42 34 34 6 6 3 3 27 27 33 33 45 45 8 8 1 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 n umber of conflicts
latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war Frequency of Conflict Items in 2010 in Asia and Oceania by Intensity Groups low Intensity medium Intensity high Intensity 10 6
15 10 13 4 7 11 4 11 9 19 10 6 4 6 2 3 5 1 4 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 frequency terr itor
y secession decolonisation autonom
y system/ideology national po w er regional
predomi- nance
inter national
po w er resources other
Asia and Oceania 53
Name of conflict 1
2
3
4 Bangladesh (AL - BNP)* AL, government vs. BNP national power 1991 3
JMB, HuJI-B, ICS vs. government system/ideology 2005 3
UPDF)* PCJSS vs. UPDF regional predominance 1997
3 Bangladesh (PCJSS, UPDF/Chittagong Hill Tracts)*
Tribes in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, UPDF, PCJSS vs. government autonomy 1971
3 Bangladesh - India* Bangladesh vs. India territory, resources, other 1971 1
Bangladesh vs. Myanmar territory, resources, other 1991 1
opposition vs. government system/ideology, national power 1997 2
Cambodia vs. Vietnam territory 1969 1
Falun Gong vs. government system/ideology 1999 2
pro-democracy parties) Hong Kong pro-democracy parties vs. government autonomy, system/ideology 1999 1
Hui ethnic minority vs. Han Chinese system/ideology, regional predominance 2000
3 China (Taiwan) government of the People’s Republic in Beijing vs. government of the Republic of China in Taipei vs. pro-Taiwan independence groups secession 1949
2 China (Tibet) Tibetan government-in-exile, Tibetan separatists vs. government secession, system/ideology, resources 1912 3
ETIM, Uighurs, WUC vs. government, Han
secession, system/ideology 1990
3 China - India* People’s Republic of China vs. India territory, international power 1947 1
USA vs. People’s Republic of China international power 1949 1
(Spratly Islands/Paracel Islands)* China (People’s Republic of China) vs. China (Republic of China/Taiwan) vs. Brunei vs. Vietnam vs. Indonesia vs. Philippines vs. Malaysia territory, resources 1945
2 Fiji (indigenous Fijians - Indo-Fijians)* indigenous Fijians vs. Indo-Fijians national power, regional predominance 1970 2
non-traditionalist indigenous Fijians)* traditionalist indigenous Fijians vs. non-traditionalist indigenous Fijians system/ideology, national power 2006
2 Fiji - Australia, New Zealand* Fiji vs. Australia, New Zealand international power 2006 1
al./Meghalaya)* ANVC, GNLA, HNLC, LAEF, PLF-M vs. government secession 1992 3
ATTF, BNCT, NLFT vs. government secession 1980 3
Bodos vs. Santhals regional predominance 1994 1
DHD vs. HPC-D regional predominance 1986 1
VHP, Bajrang Dal, Hindus vs. Christians regional predominance 1999 2
Hindus vs. Muslims regional predominance 1853 3
Manipur, Assam)* HPC - D, HNA vs. government secession 1986
2 India (JeM et al./Kashmir) JeM, LeT, HM vs. government secession 1947 4
LTTE, government other
1987 1 India (MPLF et al./Manipur) MPLF, ZRA, KCP vs. government secession 1964 3
KNF, KNA, KLA vs. NSCN, UNPC regional predominance 1947 2
CPI-M vs. government system/ideology 1997 4
al./Nagaland) NSCN-IM, NSCN-K, NSCN-U, ANSCM, NUC vs. government secession 1947 3
NSCN-K vs. NSCN-IM regional predominance 1988 3
PULF vs. government autonomy, system/ideology 1993 3
Sikhs vs. DSS regional predominance 2007 2
Akali Dal, KLF, BKI vs. government autonomy
1929 2 India (TJAC/Telangana) TJAC vs. government autonomy
1969 2
54 Conflict Barometer 2010 Name of conflict 1
2
3
4 India (ULFA et al. - Biharis, Bengalis)* ATTF, ULFA, NLFT vs. Biharis, Bengalis regional predominance 1981
2 India (ULFA et al./Assam) ULFA, NDFB, BW, DHD vs. government autonomy
1979 3 India (various Islamist militants)* JeM, HuJI, LeT, IM, SIMI vs. government system/ideology 2001
3 Indonesia (Bugis - Dayaks/Kalimantan) Bugis vs. Dayaks regional predominance 1999
3 Indonesia (GAM/Aceh)* GAM, KPA, Partai Aceh vs. government autonomy, resources 1953 3
Islamiyah)* Jemaah Islamiyah vs. government system/ideology, national power 1981
3 Indonesia (Lintas Tanzim) Lintas Tanzim vs. government system/ideology, national power 2010
3 Indonesia (Muslims - Christians/Moluccas)* Muslims, Laskar Jihad vs. Christians regional predominance 1998
3 Indonesia (Muslims - Christians/Sulawesi)* Muslims vs. Christians regional predominance 1998
2 Indonesia (OPM/Papua) OPM vs. government secession, resources 1949 3
FKM/Moluccas)* RMS, FKM vs. government secession 1950
2 Indonesia - Timor-Leste* Indonesia vs. Timor-Leste territory, other 2002 2
Diaoyutai Islands) Japan vs. China (Republic of China/Taiwan), China (People’s Republic of China) territory, resources 1972
2 Japan - Russia (Kuril Islands) Japan vs. Russia territory 1945
2 Japan - South Korea (Dokdo/Takeshima Islands)* Japan vs. South Korea territory 1948
2 Kazakhstan (opposition)* opposition vs. government system/ideology, national power 2004 2
Uzbeks) ethnic Uzbeks vs. ethnic Kyrgyz regional predominance, resources 1990 4
opposition vs. government system/ideology, national power 2005 3
Christians vs. government system/ideology 1975 2
Hmong, Royalists vs. government system/ideology, national power 1975 3
KMM vs. government system/ideology 1998 1
Indian, and Indigenous Malaysians)* Malay Malaysians vs. Chinese Malaysians, Indian Malaysians, Indigenous Malaysians regional predominance 1946 2
Pakatan Rakyat, DAP, PAS, PKR vs. government system/ideology, national power 1998
1 Malaysia - Indonesia, Philippines (immigrants)* Malaysia vs. Indonesia, Philippines other 1998
2 Myanmar (Arakan Army, NUFA/Rakhine State)* Arakan Army, NUFA vs. government secession 1948
2 Myanmar (CNA, CNF/Chin State)* CNA, CNF vs. government secession 1988
2 Myanmar (KIA, KIO/Kachin State)* KIA, KIO vs. government autonomy 1961
3 Myanmar (KNPP et al./Kayah State)* KNPP, KnA, KNLP vs. government autonomy 1948
2 Myanmar (KNU, KNLA/Karen State, Kayah State)
KNU, KNLA, DKBA Brigade 5 vs. government, DKBA secession 1948
4 Myanmar (MNLA, NMSP/Mon State, Karen State)*
MNLA, NMSP vs. government secession 1948 3
opposition vs. government system/ideology, national power 1962 3
ARNO/Rakhine State)* Rohingyas, ARNO vs. government other 1948
2 Myanmar (SSA-S et al./Shan State)* SSA-S, SSNA, SSA-N vs. government autonomy 1952
3 Myanmar (UWSA et al./Shan State)* UWSA, UWSP, MNDAA, NDAA-ESS vs. government autonomy
1988 3
Asia and Oceania 55
1
2
Start Change 3
4 Nepal (CPN-M)* CPN-M vs. government system/ideology, national power 1990 3
MJF, JTMM-R, JTMMM, ATMM vs. government autonomy 2006
3 Nepal (NDA, Ranabir Sena)* NDA, RS, Bhishma Unity Council, NDP, Hindu Youth Federation vs. government system/ideology 2007
2 Nepal (various ethnic groups) various ethnic groups vs. government autonomy 2008
2 Nepal - Bhutan* Bhutan vs. Nepal other
1985 2 North Korea - South Korea North Korea vs. South Korea territory, system/ideology, international power 1948
3 North Korea - USA, South Korea, Japan North Korea vs. USA, South Korea, Japan system/ideology, international power, other 1990
2 Pakistan (BLA et al./Balochistan) BLA, BRA, BLF, BLUF vs. government secession, resources 1998
3 Pakistan (Mohajirs - Sindhis, Pakhtuns, Baloch) Mohajirs vs. Sindhis, Pakhtuns, Baloch regional predominance 1947
4 Pakistan (opposition)* opposition vs. government national power 1998 3
tribes) various tribes vs. Taliban system/ideology, regional predominance 2001 4
various religious groups) TTP, LeJ, SSP vs. various religious group system/ideology, regional predominance 1998
4 Pakistan (various Islamist militants) various Islamist militants vs. government system/ideology, national power 2001
5 Pakistan - India* Pakistan vs. India territory, international power 1947 3
Sayyaf/Mindanao) Abu Sayyaf vs. government secession, system/ideology 1991
3 Philippines (CPP, NPA)* CPP, NPA vs. government system/ideology 1968 3
MILF vs. government secession, system/ideology, resources 1977
3 Philippines (MNLF/Mindanao)* MNLF vs. government autonomy, system/ideology, resources 1969 3
Islamiah)* Jemaah Islamiah vs. government system/ideology 1999
1 Singapore - Malaysia* Singapore vs. Malaysia territory 1963 1
groups)* Islanders of Guadalcanal, IFM vs. Islanders of Malaita, MEF regional predominance, resources 1978
1 Sri Lanka (Buddhists - Hindus, Muslims, Christians)* Buddhists vs. Hindus, Muslims, Christians regional predominance 1948
1 Sri Lanka (Jamiyathul Ulama - Sufis)* Jamiyathul Ulama vs. Sufis regional predominance 1978
1 Sri Lanka (LTTE/northern and eastern Sri Lanka) LTTE vs. government secession 1976
2 Sri Lanka (Sinhalese nationalists)* Sinhalese nationalists, conservative Buddhist clergy, JHU vs. government system/ideology, other 1948 1
Muslims)* Tamils vs. Muslims regional predominance 1976
1 Sri Lanka (Upcountry Tamils)* Upcountry Tamils vs. government other 1948
1 Tajikistan (opposition) IRP, IMU vs. government system/ideology, national power 1997 3
separatists/southern border provinces) Muslim separatists vs. government secession, system/ideology 1902 4
Tribes)* Northern Hill Tribes vs. government other 1955
1 Thailand (opposition) PTP, UDD vs. PAD, government national power 2006 3
(border) Thailand vs. Cambodia territory, international power 1954
3 Thailand - Myanmar Thailand vs. Myanmar territory, other 1948 3
FRETILIN vs. CNRT national power 2006 1
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