H eidelberg I nstitute for I nternational
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- Name of conflict 1 Conflict parties
- Angola (FLEC/Cabinda)
- Burundi (FNL Rwasa)
- Burundi (opposition)
- Central African Republic (various rebel groups)
- Chad (various rebel groups)
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Name of conflict 1
2
Start Change 3
4 Guinea-Bissau (PAIGC)* opposition vs. PAIGC (government) national power 1998 1
Samburu vs. Toposa vs. Turkana vs. Pokot
regional predominance, resources 1991 3
Mungiki group vs. government system/ideology, regional predominance 2002
3 Kenya (opposition) ODM vs. PNU system/ideology, national power 1999 2
Soy, Ndorobo, SLDF vs. government regional predominance 2002 1
TIM vs. TGV national power 2009 3
AQIM vs. government regional predominance 2009 3
Tuareg vs. government autonomy, resources 1989 2
AQIM vs. government regional predominance 2009 2
opposition groups, coup plotters vs. government system/ideology, national power 2009
3 Niger (Tuareg/Agadez)* MNJ vs. government autonomy, resources 1999 2
Boko Haram vs. government system/ideology 2003 3
Muslims)* Christian groups vs. Muslims groups system/ideology, regional predominance 1960 3
pastoralists) farmers vs. pastoralists regional predominance, resources 1960 4
MASSOB vs. government secession 1967 3
Delta) MEND, JRC, Ijaw, NDV vs. government regional predominance, resources 1997 3
Ogoni/Niger Delta)* MOSOP, Ogoni vs. government autonomy, resources 1990
1 Nigeria - Cameroon (Bakassi)* Nigeria vs. Cameroon territory, resources 1961
1 Republic of Congo (CNR, Ninja militias)* CNR, Ninja militias vs. government autonomy 1997
2 Rwanda (opposition) UDF, PS, DGPR, ex-RPF vs. government national power 2010
NEW 2 Rwanda (various Hutu rebel groups) FDLR, ex-FAR, oppositional Hutu Groups vs. government national power 1990 3
Rwanda vs. France international power, other 2004 1
Rwanda vs. Uganda international power, resources 2000 1
(MFDC/Casamance) MFDC vs. government secession 1982
3 Sierra Leone (AFRC, RUF)* RUF, AFRC vs. government national power, resources 1991 1
Hizbul Islam)* al-Shabaab vs. Hizbul Islam regional predominance 2009
3 Somalia (Islamist groups) Hizbul Islam, al-Shabaab vs. ASWJ, TFG
system/ideology, national power 2006
5 Somalia (Puntland - Somaliland) autonomous region of Puntland vs. regional government of Somaliland territory, regional predominance, resources 1998
3 Somalia (Puntland)* autonomous region of Puntland vs. Transitional Federal Government autonomy 1998
1 Somalia (Somaliland)* regional government of Somaliland vs. Transitional Federal Government secession 1991
1 South Africa (KwaZulu-Natal)* IFP vs. ANC regional predominance 1990
1 South Africa (xenophobes - immigrants)* xenophobes vs. immigrants other 2008
3 South Africa - Namibia* South Africa vs. Namibia territory, resources 1991 1
JEM, SLM/A-AW, LJM, SLRF, SLA-Unity, SLA-Juba, SLA-BA, URF vs. government, Janjaweed, SLM/A-MM regional predominance, resources 2003
5 Sudan (Eastern Front)* Eastern Front vs. government autonomy, resources 2005 1
LRA vs. SPLM/A regional predominance 1994 3
Sudan) GoSS vs. government of Sudan in Khartoum territory, secession, resources 1955 3
26 Conflict Barometer 2010 Name of conflict 1
2
3
4 Sudan (various ethnic groups)* Murle vs. Lou-Nuer vs. Jikany-Nuer vs. Dinka-Bor vs. Mundari vs. Anyuak regional predominance 2008 3
Sudan vs. Uganda territory, international power, other 1994
1 Swaziland (opposition)* PUDEMO, COSATU, SWAYOCO vs. government system/ideology 1998
2 Swaziland - South Africa* Swaziland vs. South Africa territory 1902 1
CUF vs. regional government secession 1993 1
NAC vs. government national power 2002 1
ADF vs. government national power, resources 1987 2
Kingdom of Buganda vs. government autonomy, resources 1995 3
LRA vs. government regional predominance 1987 4
Albert)* Uganda vs. DR Congo territory, resources 2007
2 Zimbabwe (MDC-T, MDC-M - ZANU-PF) MDC-T, MDC-M vs. ZANU-PF national power 2000
3 1 2 3 4
cf. overview table for Europe Angola (FLEC/Cabinda) Intensity: 3 Change:
Start: 1975
Conflict parties: FLEC vs. government Conflict items: secession, resources The secession conflict between the Front for the Libera- tion of the Enclave of Cabinda (FLEC) and the govern- ment over the status of oil-rich Cabinda remained vio- lent. On January 8, two people were killed and another ten injured in an attack on the Togolese national soccer team in Cabinda. The team had been travelling to the Africa Cup of Nations hosted by Angola. Two factions of FLEC, FLEC-Military Position and FLEC-Armed Forces of Cabinda, claimed responsibility for this incident. Sub- sequently, the government deployed 30,000 soldiers to Cabinda. Nine suspected FLEC members were ar- rested. Furthermore, Angola called on the French gov- ernment to extradite FLEC top leaders living in exile in France. On July 9, the Angolan government said it was willing to start peace talks with FLEC, responding to an offer of talks proposed by FLEC members on June 29. On August 26, top FLEC leader Henrique N’Zita Tiago turned down the peace offer, declaring that it had been proposed without his approval. Together with other FLEC leaders in exile, he deposed the people responsi- ble for the proposal. Furthermore, he called on his fol- lowers to continue operations. A FLEC faction claimed responsibility for an attack on a convoy securing Chinese mine workers on November 9, killing two Angolan sol- diers.
(lmp) Burundi (FNL Rwasa) Intensity: 3 Change:
Start: 2005
Conflict parties: FNL-faction led by Agathon Rwasa vs. government Conflict items: national power The power conflict between Agathon Rwasa’s former Hutu rebel group National Liberation Forces (FNL) and the government intensified. The FNL had transformed into a political party in 2009 and was considered the main rival to President Pierre Nkurunziza’s ruling party, National Council for the Defense of Democracy - Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), in the gen- eral elections. On 12/17/09, the UN Security Coun- cil extended BINUB’s mandate by another year. In the run-up to the general elections [ → Burundi (opposi- tion)], FNL supporters repeatedly clashed with CNDD- FDD supporters and security forces. Four FNL mem- bers were wounded in one such clash with members of CNDD-FDD’s youth wing Imbonerakure on January 23. FNL affiliates also clashed with members of the pro-government FNL breakaway faction FNL-Iragi rya Gahutu, led by Jacques Kenese. According to the FNL, 17 of its supporters were killed during the campaign pe- riod. After the first round of elections on May 24, the FNL pulled out of the election process. Starting in June, a se- ries of grenade attacks mostly by unknown perpetrators killed at least eight and wounded more than 60. E.g., one grenade killed a local FNL official in Kanyosha town, Bujumbura, and another targeted the home of General Evariste Ndayishimiye, a senior adviser of Nkurunziza, on June 28. Following rumors that security forces would try to arrest Rwasa, clashes involving hundreds of his supporters and police flared up next to his house on June 16, wounding some 15 people seriously and one fatally. At least 30 people were detained. One week later, Rwasa disappeared from Bujumbura, supposedly hiding in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In late June and on July 8, Rwasa accused the government of attempting to kill him. On August 1, an FNL congress replaced Rwasa with Emmanuel Miburo. While the interior minister recognized Miburo as new FNL leader, Rwasa threatened with consequences. Fears concerning the reemergence of warfare increased when 50 unidentified gunmen attacked two villages near the Rukoko swamps, a former refuge of FNL rebels on the DRC border. However, security forces repeatedly de- nied the existence of any rebel activities, speaking of armed bandits instead. For instance, in early Septem- ber, police killed four armed men in Cibitoke province. On September 9, the army reported a major and three other officers missing, all of whom were former FNL Sub-Saharan Africa 27 fighters integrated into the army. In mid-September, security forces launched a large-scale operation in the Rukoko swamps. From September 12 to 22, a total of 14 bodies, among them one police officer and four FNL members, were discovered in the Rusizi River. A lo- cal human rights group accused the security forces of extra-judicially executing 22 FNL members in September alone, which was denied by police and secret service. On November 2, a government spokesman claimed the armed groups responsible for the recent series of killings and attacks had been defeated. On November 4, un- known assailants killed a local FNL leader in Bujumbura Rural. The same day, Congolese troops clashed with supposed FNL fighters in South Kivu, DRC. Two civil- ians were killed. A joint attack of FNL fighters and DRC- based Rwandan Hutu rebels [ → DR Congo (FDLR)] on an army post in Mibunda, South Kivu, on November 7 and 8, left ten soldiers dead. In late October, Burundi, Rwanda, and the DRC had allegedly agreed on a com- mon strategy for joint operations against rebel groups. According to a UN report, FNL numbered 700 fighters in South Kivu. On November 9, a civilian was killed in an hour-long gun battle between armed assailants and security forces in the Rugazi region, Burundi, another former FNL stronghold. (hlm)
Burundi (opposition) Intensity: 3 Change:
Start: 2006
Conflict parties: FRODEBU, UPRONA, FNL-Icanzo, MSD, UPD, CNDD vs. government Conflict items: national power The power conflict between several opposition par- ties and the ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy - Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), led by President Pierre Nkurunziza, con- tinued. The run-up to the general elections was marked by violent incidents. For instance, a leader of the Union for Peace and Development (UPD) was killed in Bubanza province on January 10, and a member of the Move- ment for Solidarity and Democracy (MSD) was injured by a grenade in Cankuzo the same day. The CNDD- FDD’s youth wing Imbonerakure repeatedly clashed with opposition supporters, especially those of the Front for Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU). After the CNDD- FDD announced its own victory with 64 percent of the vote in the local elections held on March 24, 13 oppo- sition parties of both Tutsi and Hutu ethnicity accused the government of electoral fraud. Forming the umbrella Alliance of Democrats for Change, they announced a boycott of both the presidential and parliamentary elec- tions scheduled for June 28 and July 23, respectively. Among the six opposition leaders withdrawing their can- didacy were former President Domitien Ndayizeye of FRODEBU, Alexis Sinduhije from MSD, and Agathon Rwasa from the National Liberation Front (FNL) [ → Bu- rundi (FNL Rwasa)]. The EU and AU voiced concerns about Nkurunziza being the only candidate in presiden- tial elections. In June and July, unknown assailants launched 60 grenade attacks and assaulted members of the opposing parties. Both sides accused each other of being behind the attacks. Security forces detained scores of opposition supporters, especially from the MSD and FNL. By July, Rwasa, Sinduhije, and Leonard Nyangoma of the National Council for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD) had fled the country fearing arrest. Nkurunziza won the June 28 presidential election with 91 percent of the vote. The opposition again accused the government of electoral fraud. The attacks against both government as well as opposition supporters continued throughout the election process. On November 3, follow- ing international pressure, the government announced it would set up a commission to investigate the allegations of extra-judicial executions of opposition supporters by security forces. (bs)
Intensity: 3 Change:
Start: 2005
Conflict parties: APRD, UFDR, FDPC, CPJP vs. government Conflict items: national power The national power conflict between various rebel groups and the government remained violent. The gov- ernment was supported by the Mission for the Consoli- dation of Peace in Central African Republic (MICOPAX) of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), deployed in 2008. The Popular Army for the Restoration of the Republic and Democracy (APRD), the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR), and the Democratic Front of the Central African People (FDPC), on the one hand, and the government, on the other, had sought to revive the 2006 national peace agree- ment throughout 2008 and 2009. However, the Con- vention of Patriots for Justice and Peace (CPJP) con- tinued to fight the government. On 12/07/09, several CPJP fighters were killed when government forces at- tacked a rebel base near Ngarba close to the Chadian border. On 12/14/09, the UN mission MINURCAT de- ployed soldiers to guard a Sudanese refugee camp in the northeast Central African Republic (CAR) against rebel attacks. One day later, ECCAS military observers ar- rived to monitor the disarmament process in accordance with the national peace agreement. However, disarma- ment was halted due to the deteriorating security situ- ation. In late December 2009, government forces cap- tured CPJP leader Charles Massi in the border trian- gle of Chad, Cameroon and the CAR. On January 15, opposition parties, including the APRD, announced they would quit the election process due to rumors of planned ballot rigging by President Franc¸ois Boziz ´e. In late Jan- uary, Boziz ´e confirmed the death of Massi. The CPJP claimed that Massi had been killed by the government. In March, the disarmament process resumed. On March 27, Boziz ´e agreed to a postponement of elections pos- tulated by the Mixed Independent Electoral Commission (CEI), consisting of opposition parties, members of civil society and former rebel groups, and set May 16 as the new date of the election. On April 2, CPJP fighters took the northeastern town of Nd ´el ´e, demanding talks with the government concerning the death of Massi. The gov- ernment claimed ten CPJP fighters had been killed when government forces recaptured the town the following day. On April 29, Boziz ´e declared the indefinite postpone- ment of the presidential elections. On May 28, the Con-
28 Conflict Barometer 2010 stitutional Court validated a bill concerning the extension of Boziz ´e’s term. Parliament had passed the bill on May 10. In early June, Boziz ´e denied involvement in Massi’s death.
On June 10, government forces clashed with CPJP fighters in Nd ´el ´e, thereby ending a series of CPJP attacks that had started in late May. The government claimed that several rebels had been killed. On June 17, the CEI announced elections would be held on October 24. A UFDR faction and CPJP members attacked an army base in Birao on July 19. The government claimed that 13 assailants and one soldier had been killed in the attack. On August 11, the CEI approved January 31, 2011 as the new election date. The CPJP stated it had attacked an army base on August 30. On September 18, the CPJP occupied the town of Yalinga. However, the government recaptured the town on October 4. CPJP re- futed the reports. On September 24, the government ac- cused opposition leader Martin Zigu ´el ´e of being the new CPJP leader. On October 6, five people were killed when UFDR fighters clashed with LRA fighters mainly operat- ing on CAR territory [ → Uganda (LRA)]. The government claimed that CPJP fighters had abducted 21 CEI mem- bers near Birao in late October. CPJP denied the allega- tions. On November 15, MINURCAT withdrew from the CAR. On November 24, CPJP fighters took over Birao, northeast CAR, which had been protected by MINUR- CAT. At least four soldiers were killed. Two days later, the government claimed the recapture of Birao, and stated that five soldiers as well as several CPJP fighters had been killed, which the CPJP denied. On November 30, the CPJP stated it had retreated from Birao. Accord- ing to CPJP, the Chadian Army, supported by tanks, had crossed the border into CAR and attacked CPJP fight- ers in Birao. CPJP accused the Chadian army of hav- ing conducted air strikes in the attack on Birao, lead- ing to fatalities among the residents. The Chadian army declared the operation in Birao had been conducted in order to pursuit renegade Chadian soldiers supporting the CPJP, and denied having carried out air strikes. The CAR government, in turn, denied the Chadian army had intervened and captured Birao. (ng)
Intensity: 3 Change:
Start: 2005
Conflict parties: UFR, PFNR, MPRD, UFDD, RDC, FSR, DMCR, NADC, NRA vs. government Conflict items: national power, resources The conflict over national power and resources between several rebel coalitions and the government deesca- lated. This development was closely linked to the signif- icant rapprochement between Chad and Sudan, which resulted in the abandonment of support for rebel move- ments in the respective bordering state as well as the establishment of a Joint Border Force in early February [ →
leave Dafur, Sudan, which had served as their rear base in the past. On 12/15/09, government forces clashed with rebels of the Union of Forces for Resistance (UFR) near the towns of Ad ´e and Tissi in the east of the country. In early January, the Chadian army arrested southern rebel commander Colonel Djibrine Dassert, head of the rebel Movement for Peace, Reconciliation and Progress (MPRD). On January 16, the Chadian Air Force bom- barded rebel positions of the UFR near the village of Tissi. On April 2, a Chadian government delegation con- tacted UFR rebels in Sudan, seeking to start peace ne- gotiations. Between April 24 and 28, fighting erupted between the Popular Front for National Rebirth (PFNR) and government troops. In Tamassi, near Chad’s bor- der with Sudan, the army reportedly killed more than 100 rebels, arresting another 80, while sustaining nine casualties itself. The PFNR confirmed the fighting but rejected the government’s death toll. On May 17, the rebel group Union of Forces for Democracy and Devel- opment (UFDD), the Revolutionary Democratic Coun- cil (RDC), the Front for the Salvation of the Republic (FSR), and the Democratic Movement for Chadian Ren- ovation (DMCR) formed the National Alliance for Demo- cratic Change (NADC). Against the backdrop of decreas- ing support by the Sudanese government, more than four batches of Chadian rebels left Darfur. Between April 1 and 4, the government held talks with UFR and the Na- tional Resistance Army (ANR) in Khartoum mediated by Sudan. On October 12, a number of UFR members re- nounced the armed struggle and accepted an amnesty offered by the government. Chad rejected the exten- sion of the MINURCAT mandate, which would lead to the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers by the end of the year. According to government sources, 4,000 fighters from UFDD, UFR and RDC laid down their arms during a demobilization ceremony at the town of Moussoro in the Bahr al-Gazel region on November 8. (jk)
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