International Economics
Download 7.1 Mb. Pdf ko'rish
|
Dominick-Salvatore-International-Economics
BP curve at point F , at Y
F = 1500. The intersection of the broken IS curve with the unchanged LM curve at point E indicates a tendency for the nation’s interest rate to rise to i = 6.25%. However, because of perfect capital mobility at i = 5.0% for this small nation, there is a capital inflow from abroad that increases the nation’s money supply (as the foreign currency is exchanged for domestic currency) and shifts the LM curve to LM . As a result, broken curves IS and LM intersect at point F on the horizontal BP curve, with i = 5.0% and Y F = 1500, and the nation is simultaneously in internal and external balance. In this case, it will be impossible for the small nation to prevent its money supply from increasing until the LM curve has shifted all the way to LM . Only then will capital inflows come to an end and the nation’s money supply stabilize (at the level given by LM ). If this small nation attempted to reach point F by the easy monetary policy that shifts the LM curve to the right to LM , the interest rate would tend to fall to i = 3.75% (point E in the figure). This would lead to capital outflows, which would reduce the nation’s money supply to the original level and shift the LM curve back to the original LM position. If the nation attempted to sterilize, or neutralize, the effect of these capital outflows on its money supply, it would soon exhaust all of its foreign exchange reserves, and the capital outflows Salvatore c18.tex V2 - 11/02/2012 7:37 A.M. Page 588 588 Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Adjustment Policies would continue until the nation’s money supply had been reduced to the original position given by the LM curve. Thus, with fixed exchange rates, monetary policy is completely ineffective if international capital flows are highly elastic, as they are likely to be, for many small industrial nations in today’s world of highly integrated capital markets. Case Study 18-3 examines the effect of fiscal policy in the United States and its repercussions on the European Union and on Japan. (continued) ■ CASE STUDY 18-3 Effect of U.S. Fiscal Policy in the United States and Abroad Table 18.2 shows the effect of a U.S. restrictive fiscal policy (through a combination of increase in taxes and a reduction in government expen- ditures) equal to 6 percent of GDP on the U.S. growth rate, inflation rate, trade balance, current account balance, and short-term interest rates, and ■ TABLE 18.2. Effect of a Restrictive U.S. Fiscal Policy with Fixed Exchange Rates, 2004–2009 Yearly Averages: 2004–2009 Baseline Restrictive End Point (2009) Scenario Scenario Fiscal Policy a with Respect to Baseline United States Growth of real GDP b 3 .3 2 .6 −4.5 Rate of inflation b 1 .3 1 .6 1 .5 Trade balance c −4.7 −3.7 2 .1 Current account balance c −5.1 −3.8 2 .6 Short-term interest rate d 3 .9 0 .0 −5.4 European Monetary Union Growth of real GDP b 2 .3 2 Download 7.1 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
Ma'lumotlar bazasi mualliflik huquqi bilan himoyalangan ©fayllar.org 2024
ma'muriyatiga murojaat qiling
ma'muriyatiga murojaat qiling