Lessons on cooperation building to manage water conflicts in the Aral Sea Basin; Technical documents in hydrology: pc-cp series; Vol.: 11; 2003

3.2.3. Water Conflicts in Perspective 
Water is already a limiting factor (not only in terms of volume, but also in terms of 
quality) for some zones in the Aral Sea Basin today. This means that future 
sustainable development is under some stress. Also there is uncertainty about the 
possible impact of global climate change on water resources in the region. Over the 
last thirty-five years, the average temperature has increased by 1 
o
C and the size of 
glaciers in the Pamiro-Alay system has been reduced by 22 percent. Different 
scenarios predict a greater water deficit by the year 2020 as result of evaporation 
increase and a decrease of water resources of between 6 and 20 km
3
annually (or 5–
15 percent of total water resources). In this context, conflicts in water management 
could arise as the result of different national approaches to the planning of national 
development scenarios. It is desirable to establish proper interstate cooperation to 
promote unanimity in the conduct of the planning process. 
3.2.4. Prospect of Increased Water Use by Non-members of ICWC 
A specific field of potential conflict is the prospect of increase water consumption by 
two states that are not presently members of the ICWC: Afghanistan, which different 
assessment indicate is the source of from 9.5 up to 13.4 km
3
of water resources 
connected with principal rivers, and China (Tsincjen), within which about 0.8 km
3
of 
water originates in the upper watershed of the Karadarya river. These aspects require 
future negotiations between members of the ICWC and the two states. There are 
strong arguments for involving Afghanistan in the activities of the ICWC. 
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Of, course, it is beyond the scope of this report to attempt to define the scale of 
such diversions from rivers, because no agreements between the former Soviet Union 
states and Afghanistan or China cover such problems. In our view, this potential 
problem may become reality in ten or twenty years time, when the economic situation 
in Afghanistan has stabilized. China is not so important in this aspect, taking into 
account the small amount of water that originates in its territory. 
It should be noted that there are factors that obstruct conflict resolution in the 
region. Among them are the lack of information transparency and lack of proper 
communication systems among different levels of water related players: 
● 
on the inter-sector level in each country and in region 
● 
on the interstate level between water specialists and water users 
● 
between water organizations and NGOs. 
To establish proper mechanisms for conflict prevention and resolution it is necessary 
to concentrate activities on the following areas: (a) institutional strengthening at the 
national and regional levels; (b) creation of a legal framework; (c) establishment of 
the proper financial mechanisms; (d) technical perfection and capacity building. The 
following sections of the paper will discuss these issues.