Microsoft Word io elliott Wave Theory doc

October 6, 1982 

---

115
This bull market should be the first "buy-and-hold" market since the 1960s. The experience of the last 
16 years has turned us all into [short-term market timers], and it's a habit that will have to be 
abandoned. The market may have 200 points behind it, but it's got over 2000 left to go! The Dow 
should hit an ultimate target of 3880, with interim stops at 1300 (an estimate for the peak of wave [1], 
based on post-triangle thrust) and 2860 (an estimate for the peak of wave [3], based on the target 
measuring from the 1974 low). 
November 29, 1982 
A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS 
The arrow on the following chart [see Figure A-7] illustrates my interpretation of the position of the 
Dow within the current bull market. Now if an Elliotter tells you that the Dow is in wave (2) of [1] of V, 
you know exactly what he means. Whether he's right, of course, only time will tell. 
Figure A-7 
Next Lesson: Nearing the Pinnacle of a Grand Supercycle 
Lesson 34: Nearing the Pinnacle of a Grand Supercycle 
Real time forecasting is an immense intellectual challenge. Mid-pattern decision making is particularly 
difficult. There are times, however, as in December 1974 and August 1982, when major patterns reach 
completion and a textbook picture stands right before your eyes. At such times, one's level of 
conviction rises to over 90%. 

---

116
The current juncture presents another such picture. Here in March 1997, the evidence is compelling 
that the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the broad market indices are registering the end of their 
rise. Because of the large degree of the advance, a sociological era will end with it. 
Elliott Wave Principle, written in 1978, argued that Cycle wave IV had finished its pattern at the price 
low in December 1974. Figure D-1 shows the complete wave labeling up until that time. 
Figure D-1 
Figure D-2 shows the same labeling updated. The inset in the lower right corner shows the alternative 
count for the 1973-1984 period, which The Elliott Wave Theorist began using as its preferred count in 
1982 while continually reiterating the validity of the original interpretation. As shown in Lesson 33, the 
count detailed on the inset called the 1982 lift-off, the peak of wave [1], the low of wave [2], the peak of 
wave [3], and by Frost's reckoning, the low of wave [4]. Wave [5] has carried over 3000 points beyond 
EWT's original target of 3664-3885. In doing so, it has finally met and surpassed in a throw-over its 
long term trendlines. 

---

117
Figure D-2 
Take a look at the main chart in Figure D-2. Those familiar with the Wave Principle will see a 
completed textbook formation that follows all the rules and guidelines from beginning to end. As noted 
back in 1978, wave IV holds above the price territory of wave I, wave III is the extended wave, as is 
most commonly the case, and the triangle of wave IV alternates with the zigzag of wave II. With the 
last two decades' performance behind us, we
can record some additional facts. Subwaves I, III and V all sport alternation, as each Primary wave [2] 
is a zigzag, and each Primary wave [4] is an expanded flat. Most important, wave V has finally 
reached the upper line of the parallel trend channel drawn in Elliott Wave Principle eighteen years 
ago. The latest issues of The Elliott Wave Theorist, with an excitement equal to that of 1982, focus 
sharply on the remarkable developments that so strongly suggest that wave V is culminating (see 
Figure D-3, from the March 14, 1997 Special Report). 
This is a stunning snapshot of a market at its pinnacle. Whether or not the market edges higher near 
term to touch the line again, I truly believe that this juncture will be recognized years hence as a 
historic time in market history, top tick for U.S. stocks in the worldwide Great Asset Mania of the late 
twentieth century. 

---

118
Figure D-3