Problem Solving

Problem Solving

Objectives

• Learn how to state and clarify a problem
• Develop a procedure for problem solving
• Learn the traps
• in problem solving

What’s typical?

• Self-Doubt

• Over Confidence

• Procrastination

• Flip-flops

• Desperation!

• WRONG!

Six Criteria for Effective Decisions

• Focuses on what is important
• Logical and consistent
• Acknowledges objective and subjective factors, blends analytical and intuitive thinking
• Does not gather too much information
• Tries to reach consensus
• Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible

Problem Solving Model

• P
• O A C T

• roblem

• bjectives

• lternatives

• onsequences

• radeoffs

Additional Factors

• Risk
• Uncertainty
• Linked decisions

Problem Solving Steps

• State the problem carefully
• Acknowledge complexities
• Avoid assumptions and prejudices
• Specify the objectives
• Create imaginative alternatives
• Understand the consequences of the alternative
• Grapple with your tradeoffs………con’t

Problem Solving Steps, con’t

• Clarify uncertainties
• Think about your risk tolerance and the risks of each alternative
• Consider linked decisions
• Each alternative opens or closes future options

• THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS

• STAGE ONE

• Define the Starting Issue(s)

• Define the Problem

• Analyze the Situation

• Objectives:
• 1. To analyze the facts.
• 2. To define the problem

• Understand the Issues

• THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS

• STAGE TWO

• Generate Ideas

• Make Decisions

• Evaluate Ideas

• Objectives:
• 1. To generate ideas.
• 2. To evaluate ideas.
• 3. To decide on the best possible solution

• Find Solutions

• THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS

• STAGE THREE

• Analyze the Impact

• Plan the Follow-through

• Plan Your Action

• Objectives:
• 1. To determine the impact on people and systems.
• 2. To build on action plan.
• 3. To decide on follow-through.

• Plan Your Action

What’s the best solution?

• A good solution
• to a well-posed
• problem….

• An excellent
• solution to a
• poorly posed
• problem

• Is a
• almost
• always
• a smarter
• choice
• than..

Define the Problem

• What triggers the problem?
• State the problem
• Question the constraints of the problem
• statement
• Identify the essential elements
• How does this impact other decisions?
• What is the scope of the problem?
• Gain insights from others
• Restate problem, if necessary

What Objectives Do

• Help determine what information to seek
• Explain your choices to others
• Determine the importance of, time and effort devoted to the problem

How to identify objectives

• Write down the concerns you hope to address:
• Wish list
• Worst possible outcome
• Impact on others
• Insights from others
• What’s a good alternative but unfeasible?
• What is bad about the worst alternatives?

How to identify objectives

• Convert the concerns into succinct objectives
• Separate the ends from the means
• Clarify what you mean by each objective
• Test your objectives

Alternatives

• Use your objects and ask HOW?
• Challenge constraints to your alternatives
• Set high aspirations
• Think through your alternatives before consulting others
• Learn from past experience
• Then ask others for suggestions

How to generate alternatives

• Brainstorming
• Just list alternatives, don’t evaluate
• Never stop looking for alternatives
• Look for win-win alternatives
• Stop when you’ve thought through alternatives
• One solution would satisfy you
• But still have a range of alternatives

Consequences

• List the consequences of each alternative
• Assess the future consequences of each alternative
• Create a free-form description of the consequences
• Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives
• Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives into a table …….

Consequences

• Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences
• Use qualitative and quantitative data
• Use experts if necessary
• Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of precision

Tradeoffs

• Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others
• Then swaps between alternatives using measures
• Value incremental improvements
• Make consistent tradeoffs

Uncertainties

• What are the key uncertainties?
• What are the possible outcomes of these uncertainties?
• What are the changes of the outcomes, given these uncertainties?
• What are the consequences of each outcome?….

Uncertainties

• Identify the key uncertainties
• Define the possible outcomes
• Assign chance of occurrence of each outcome
• Clarify consequences using quantitative and qualitative measures
• Create a decision tree

Risk Tolerance

• How much risk do you want to handle?
• How much are others affected by your decision?
• Quantify the risks, if possible
• Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish optimism
• Don’t avoid making risky decisions just because they are complex

How to lessen risk

• Seek risk reducing information
• Diversify the risk
• Hedge the risk
• Insure against the risk

Linked decisions

• Choose options that leave future flexibility intact
• Get timing right on decision tree
• Describe the consequences at the end points

Psychological Traps

• Working on the wrong problem
• Failing to identify key objectives
• Failing to develop a range of good, creative alternatives
• Overlooking crucial consequences of your alternatives
• Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs
• Disregarding uncertainty…….

Traps, con’t

• Failing to account for risk intolerance
• Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked over time...

• So, tell me some specifics on these traps...

Common Traps

• Anchoring trap
• Status Quo Trap
• Sunk Cost Trap
• Confirming Evidence Trap
• Framing Trap

• Overconfidence Trap
• Recallability Trap
• Base Rate Trap
• Prudence Trap
• Random Events

Review

• A model for problem solving
• The actions in each of the steps
• Common Traps in problem solving

• THANK YOU!